Devi Asmarani, Jakarta – New government policies expected to be unveiled today for the restive province of Aceh are likely to be a combination of a carrot and stick approach.

They will be crucial to resolving the security, economic and social problems in the area, but analysts warn that any hasty move to beef up military forces to crush separatism in Aceh may just worsen the 26-year-long conflict there.

Political analyst Bantarto Bandoro from the Centre of Strategic International Studies said the government would likely take firmer action to contain instability even as it prepared to resume peace talks that have been inconclusive thus far.

On-again, off-again talks in Geneva with exiled leaders of the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) have led to a standoff on the diplomatic front, while on the ground, the military has escalated its crackdown on the rebels.

Such stepped-up military action, Mr Bantarto told The Straits Times, "would raise pressure on GAM in the field, with the end target being to eventually force them to the negotiating table".

Jakarta would also try to woo civilian and community leaders in the province by offering a wide-ranging autonomy deal, in which the resource-rich province would be entitled to more revenue from its gas and oil reserves.

"I think that this new policy would be better than before, but to resolve the Aceh problems completely is a long and arduous process," he said.

But he urged the military to reduce repression in the province, and warned that any move to impose emergency rule – as many in Aceh and Jakarta believe might be announced – would be a start of a new problem.

The Acehnese are awaiting the new policies nervously, afraid that emergency rule will be imposed, which is one step below the most serious declaration that the government can make: martial law.

Mr Nashir Jamil, a member of the Aceh legislature, told The Straits Times: "The problem is that the Acehnese do not believe that Jakarta is serious in resolving our multiple problems. We don't trust the central and local government, and we don't trust the military. If only they could be more retrospective and make an effort to return our trust, it would be much easier to resolve the conflicts in Aceh."

Others who have been following the protracted issues in Aceh are calling on Jakarta to focus on stimulating the local economy and rebuilding conflict-torn areas, where dozens of schools, offices and homes have been damaged by clashes between the military and the rebels. They also believe that GAM should be included in the process to draft a new autonomy law. Such a move would show Jakarta's sincerity in ending the conflict.

A top official for the local administration told The Straits Times that any move to prosecute the military perpetrators of past rights abuses would also be a positive signal that Jakarta was bringing justice to the province.

In the nine-year operation to crack down on GAM that ended in 1998, thousands of civilians were killed, kidnapped, tortured and raped by Indonesian soldiers. And in the last two years, nearly 2,000 people, including GAM members and civilians, have died in the conflict.

Jakarta has said that it wants to end the conflict before the term of the Megawati administration ends in two year's time.