APSN Banner

Cabinet's 100-day honeymoon

Source
Straits Times - August 11, 2001

Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – While Indonesia's new Cabinet has won praise for its high percentage of seasoned professionals, it will have to move fast to prove its capability.

Analysts and observers say this new team has a 100-day honeymoon period in which to prove it can turn Indonesia's economy around, deal with a violent separatist war in Aceh and a spate of bombings in the country, and tackle rampant corruption and communal violence.

The Cabinet's economic team will be expected to deliver a credible budget and sign a deal with the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, Indonesians and the international community will also be scrutinising how the so-called dream Cabinet tackles the security, separatist and social crises rocking the country.

Some observers have expressed confidence in the capability of President Megawati Sukarnoputri's new government to stop the random violence which has plagued the archipelago for so long. It is hoped that the police will work with the military, which in turn is backing the new Cabinet so that at least one high-profile scalp, such as that of Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra, can be brought in.

Tommy is the playboy son of former president Suharto who has been on the run to avoid an 18-month jail sentence for graft. He has also been blamed for a spate of bombings across Indonesia as well as the recent drive-by killing of a Supreme Court judge. The Jakarta police seem eager to please the new President and while many observers are sceptical that Tommy will be found, they think at least one Suharto family member will be arrested for hiding a criminal.

But some analysts feel that Ms Megawati is unlikely to pursue major corruption cases involving the Suharto family or Golkar party figures linked to the family, who include Ginandjar Kartasasmita, the former finance minister.

Ms Megawati's supporters will be looking for some signs of her being willing to tackle rampant corruption. At the very least, she will have to re-open or continue investigation into some well-known cases, such as those involving state-owned companies or banks. "Perhaps she'll make an example of someone and scare some people," predicted a diplomat.

Another major test for the new government will be its handling of the escalating separatist conflict in Aceh. Analysts are unsure of whether Ms Megawati will opt to continue negotiations with the rebels or just resort to military force to try to wipe out the rebel movement.

But Ms Megawati's appointment of Hasan Wirayuda – who has led negotiations between the rebel Free Aceh Movement (GAM) leaders and the Indonesian government – as Foreign Minister, suggests that she may try to seek a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

"If Hasan has real power, with the international governments' backing, it could be quite successful," said military analyst Bob Lowry. "They would also need the police and the military because GAM needs to know it can't win using military force," he said.

But if the government wanted negotiations to work, they would have to reign in the military and police, ensuring they abide by any ceasefire agreement and not shoot and torture civilians indiscriminately as frequently reported, Mr Lowry said.

This will be where coordinating minister for security and political affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's good military connections would come in useful, according to Mr Lowry.

Country