International reactions to Megawati Sukarnoputri becoming Indonesia's new president on July 23 were swift but measured.
Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations expressed cautious support while US President George W Bush quickly said he looked forward to working with Megawati. And US Secretary of State Colin Powell reiterated Washington's concern that Indonesia not degenerate into violence during the transition of power from former president Abdurrahman Wahid.
Despite the obvious role the Indonesian military played in the change in regimes, Washington will accelerate plans to re-establish suspended ties with Indonesia's armed forces. The US government views the military's resurgent political role as a necessary evil to ensure the more important goal of stability in Southeast Asia's most populous nation.
During much of former president Suharto's 32-year tenure, Washington and Jakarta kept close military ties. For the United States and its Asian allies, the benefits of a stable Indonesia ruled by the staunchly anti-communist Suharto far outweighed concerns about his military regime's numerous human rights violations. But when pro-Indonesian militants violently rocked East Timor's independence referendum in 1999, Washington suspended ties with the Indonesian armed forces, which were blamed for training and controlling the militants. Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm Craig Quigley said, "We just don't think that it's appropriate given the circumstances, that that [military-to-military] relationship continue at this point." Several factors contributed to the US government's change in posture.
First, the post-Cold War changes in the international system left Washington with little justification for supporting autocratic military regimes – even if they were anti-communist. Second, Washington was in the midst of a shifting pattern of foreign diplomacy, where the lack of threats to the United States meant human rights interests could play a greater role in policy decisions.
The Indonesian military has changed little since the Pentagon severed ties. In fact, it has reasserted its influence and power in Jakarta rather than acquiesce to civilian authority. Washington, however, has also reassessed its position and those of its allies in Asia. Most of the region is still struggling after the 1997 financial crisis, and China is expanding its regional military and political influence – a source of concern for Australia and Japan as well as the United States. Facing this new equation, Washington again views Indonesia as a vital ally, one whose stability must be ensured to protect US access to its critical shipping lanes.
The Bush administration has already floated the idea of rebuilding ties with Jakarta's military. James A Kelley, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, told a congressional international relations committee in June that Indonesia was a high priority for the new administration, and Washington would "do whatever [it] can to help [Indonesia] succeed".
At the same time, reports began to circulate in the US media that the administration was trying to find ways to persuade Congress to allow the resumption of ties.
Indonesian military officials are apparently well aware of Washington's interest in rebuilding relations. Lieutenant-General Agus Widjojo, the Indonesian military's territorial affairs chief, said on July 12 that the new US administration would be more "benign" toward Indonesia because Washington "will see Indonesia as the most strategic country in the region", according to The Jakarta Post. Widjojo, who was speaking at a conference in Jakarta with the president of the US-Indonesia Society, added that an unstable Indonesia would destabilize the entire region, "which will eventually burden the US's efforts to achieve its national interests" in Asia.
US Ambassador to Indonesia Robert S Gelbard also made comments at the conference that bolstered the military leaders' confidence that Washington has changed its attitude toward them. Gelbard, while defending Washington's support of democratic change around the world, said, "Each nation must determine the most appropriate democratic system, consistent with its culture and values, as well as universally recognized rights." This was a tacit nod to a military role in Indonesia's new government.
The Bush administration still has several hurdles in Congress before it can re-establish close ties. But both Washington and Jakarta are convinced that these links are necessary for their respective interests. The military is considered the political power broker in Indonesia, and in the latest crisis helped quicken Wahid's demise by refusing to support his presidential decree suspending parliament.
Indonesian military leaders see renewed US ties as offering the potential for much-needed financial assistance, as well as lending legitimacy to the military's increased internal security and political roles. With the unproven Megawati at the helm, a strengthened Indonesian military has more power to exert influence and control over the government.
And for Washington, a stronger Indonesian military means a greater chance for stability in the region. Resuming direct ties will also keep the Indonesia's armed forces from turning to Russia or China for support.