Ian Timberlake, Jakarta – President Abdurrahman Wahid's threat to declare a state of emergency tonight is a deliberate tactic to foster negotiations with his political opponents, according to observers. "It's psychological warfare," said Arbi Sanit, a political-science lecturer at the University of Indonesia.

For months now, Mr Abdurrahman has talked of proclaiming an emergency situation. He even set a previous deadline, June 8, which came and went unnoticed.

But what might appear to be indecisiveness on this and other issues is actually a conscious effort to keep his opponents off balance, Mr Sanit suggests. Less than two weeks from the August 1 special session which could force Mr Abdurrahman from office, his pressure tactics could be starting to work.

The leaders of two main opposition parties, Golkar and the United Development Party, have met the President for talks assisted by Cabinet secretary Marzuki Darusman, also a Golkar member. "That's a result of the pressure,"' Mr Sanit said. Both sides were waiting to see who would blink first, said the President's official biographer, Mr Greg Barton.

He said that Golkar, the party which had backed former strongman Suharto, was trying to rehabilitate its image and runs a risk if Mr Abdurrahman calls early elections under a state of emergency. Golkar is not yet ready to face the electorate, Mr Barton said, and the party could also look bad if it insisted on Mr Abdurrahman's removal at the special session. "If they go with the compromise, it lowers the risk," he said, adding that Cabinet seats for Golkar would be part of any deal.

Independent political risk consultant Arian Ardie agreed that Mr Abdurrahman was trying to force people's hands by setting a deadline. "Every time so far that Gus Dur has been up against the wall, he's been able to escape; by less and less a margin each time but so far he's still in office," he said.

Observers agree that the President knows it would be virtually impossible for him to execute a state of emergency because the army and police are opposed to the move. It also remains unclear as to how he could "freeze" the People's Consultative Assembly, which elected him. "What he really wants is to get some sort of a compromise," said Mr Abdurrahman's friend, Mr H.S. Dillon.