Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – Thursday's order to arrest Indonesia's sacked police chief Bimantoro and yesterday's backdown from the arrest indicate that President Abdurrahman Wahid is willing to fight to the end in his bid to cling to power, said analysts.

However, it is still open to debate whether the President is embarking on the first steps towards declaring a civil emergency, or just raising the political ante in a game of brinkmanship. Mr Abdurrahman knows that if he declares a civil emergency, he won't have sufficient police backing to dissolve the parliament, observers pointed out.

But the embattled Indonesian leader hopes to use emergency rule as a way to split the political parties that have been backing his impeachment. "He wants to order the disbandment of Golkar and thereby create a debate in the DPR over Golkar's stance," said one analyst.

The President believes that if he tries to break up Golkar, the party of ex-president Suharto, he will gain considerable support from other parties that resent Golkar's influential position. "This will create some room to manoeuvre," said the analyst.

But the local media also reported that the President was still negotiating a compromise with party leaders, such as United Development Party (PPP) chief Hamzah Haz.

Other observers are not so certain that Mr Abdurrahman really intends to declare emergency rule and said the President's threats are just part of the psychological warfare to rattle his political rivals.

Said one diplomat: "He's trying to force out his opponents, to spook them a bit." The diplomat said Mr Abdurrahman might be trying to isolate his opponents and then go on the offensive either by threatening to arrest them, or launching further investigations into their political or business deals.

An editorial in yesterday's Jakarta Post also said that the main purpose behind Mr Abdurrahman's decision to sack the police chief was to allow him to arrest his political opponents.

Analysts agree that it will be virtually impossible for Mr Abdurrahman to enforce a state of civil emergency. Even police officers supportive of Mr Abdurrahman are unlikely to agree to the dissolving of parliament, particularly as the military will not back such a move.

However, observers say the President will not retreat and have not ruled out his use of violence as a means of forcing parliament to back down. Analyst Bob Lowry said: "He shows no signs of accepting his fate. He will use whatever means possible."