It's a big cake and it's ready for the cutting, or so they think. The cake is called Megawati Sukarnoputri's presidency. It has to be shared out very carefully, each piece exactly the right size. If not the whole cake could just break up and fall apart in a big mess.
Perhaps this is why Mega has been treading so carefully. Many people say they want Sukarno's eldest daughter back in the palace her father once occupied. But will they abandon her a few miles down the road and leave her to her fate, like President Abdurrahman Wahid?
"The cake is not ready. Why are people already talking about sharing it out?" Mega said recently, as quoted by Feisal Tamin, head of the functional groups faction in the supreme People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).
Like it or not, that is what is happening. In the runup to the MPR special session, due to open on August 1, the cake and how to cut it up will be the big topic of discussion among the five big parties in the pro-Mega camp. In a symbolic boost to their fragile alliance, its status has been raised from that of factional leaders in parliament to the level of party secretary-generals.
And as they discuss sharing out the cake, they will also be determining whether or not Mega's government will be based on firm foundations, or liable to collapse from within like that of Indonesia's current president.
These are sensitive talks. There are two extremely sensitive areas. One is the vice presidency and the other is the makeup of Mega's new cabinet. And they are proving difficult areas to tackle. Two weeks ago the word went around that the pro-Mega coalition was on the verge of splintering. Senior officials in the Central Axis of Muslim groups and Golkar started to doubt the commitment of Mega's own nationalist Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). They suspected PDI-P of seeking to go its own way in government. Mega learned in 1999 that winning the election does not necessarily ensure the presidency-at least in Indonesia. PDI-P needs friends.
And PDI-P's would-be friends were suspicious of Mega's reluctance to share out the cake. PDI-P seemed unwilling to get down to this nitty-gritty before the special session got underway, the long awaited meeting which is likely to sack Wahid and replace him with Mega. Unless her coalition falls apart first, that is.
A meeting of party leaders was scheduled for Sunday two weeks ago at Jalan Kebagusan in Jakarta, where Mega has her private residence. Then it was cancelled because Mega objected. The original plan was that several key agreements would be formalized at this meeting, including who would be Mega's vice president and how the cabinet would look.
Around the same time there was a meeting in Jalan Jenggala, at the home of Arifin Panigoro, PDI-P's faction leader in the House of Representatives (DPR). The same cracks in the alliance were all too visible. One Central Axis politician says the inter-faction meeting that evening was poorly attended. Those who turned up were listless. Normally it is much more lively. Ade Komarudin from Golkar, who usually turns up, could not stay too long this time. Alvin Lie, deputy secretary-general of the National Mandate Party (PAN), chose to go home to Semarang. In fact, the main people at the event were PDI-P's cowboys, like Meilono Suwondo and Heri Akhmadi.
"We have got lazy. We installed the equipment to shake Gus Dur for 14 months. Why is it still like this?" said one source sadly. MPR speaker Amien Rais confirmed the growing malaise. "I also heard them, and the symptoms are indeed rather strong," he said.
But Amien said he did not think it was bad enough to kill off the coalition. So said Rully Chairul Azwar of Golkar, a deputy chairman of the special ad hoc committee of the MPR's working committee, who often attends the inter-faction forum. "Friends from the Central Axis indeed are annoyed," he said.
Alimarwan Hanan, United Development Party (PPP) secretary general, said that although the anti-Wahid front was still intact, his people are getting tense. "Why is it as if Mega is lazy about taking decisions?"
Within PDI-P they see things a little differently. Some within the party are urging Mega to avoid horse-trading. Haryanto Taslam from the 'old board' faction, the old Mega loyalists, espies traps in the 1945 Constitution which could be used to destroy Mega's aspirations. They have not been properly discussed, he says.
Take Section 8 of the constitution. This merely notes that if the president 'stops' before his or her term is over, his or her deputy automatically will be promoted to replace him or her. So what if Wahid 'is stopped' at the special session. In other words he is fired rather than resigning of his own free will or being incapacitated. There is no guarantee in law that Mega will immediately be promoted to replace him. The addition of the clause 'if the president is stopped' to the constitution is so far only a proposed amendment.
Moreover, says Taslam, the talks about a coalition only touch the issue of sharing out seats. They have not touched on more basic issues like ideology and the future system of government. "And as if Gus Dur is certain to go down. This is not ethical," he added. On the other hand, he said, if the other parties keep forcing the issue of sharing out authority there is a good chance this coalition will fall apart by itself. All Wahid need do is sit back and wait.
Amien, Wahid's arch-foe, saw the danger and acted fast. He met Megawati and gave her a guarantee that the Central Axis would not try to topple her until 2004, when the next general election is scheduled for. And Mega immediately handed the issue of filling the vice president's seat over to the party chairmen.
"Whether it is filled or left empty depends on friends in the political parties. The main thing is, not from outside the parties," said Mega, as quoted by a Tempo source.
Amien confirmed this meeting and said he indeed asked Mega not to believe the rumor that she would be shaken in her turn after six months as president. "That never even a little bit came to my mind. If it was like that, I would be a low-quality person," he said.
Three days later, the inter-faction forum again held a meeting at the Hotel Boulevard in Plaza Park, Jakarta. The star of the show finally arrived, at least in spirit. PDI-P secretary-general Sutjipto came bringing Mega's 'vote'. It was essentially the same as Amien's. Mega kicked the vice presidency ball over to the party leaders. PDI-P also guaranteed that it would not leave other parties out when it drew up its cabinet. Sutjipto also asked that the delayed party leaders meeting should not be made an issue. Mega confirmed that the much-awaited forum would be called two weeks before the special session. And Mega also confirmed that she would not accept any offer of compromise from Wahid in any form whatsoever.
Alvin of PAN also attended the meeting and confirmed that the vice presidency was discussed, and the cabinet. "But it was only limited to the structure," he said.
According to Rully, the next cabinet will be much fatter than the present one. According to the temporary agreement, there will be 34 full ministers or officials of ministerial rank, plus seven junior ministers. There will be junior ministers for overseas trade, human rights and regional autonomy among other things. Muhammad Yamin, a PDI-P legislator known to be close to Mega's influential husband Taufiq Kiemas, said the cabinet seats would be shared between parties on a proportional basis, according to how they did in the 1999 election. Two other factors also need to be borne in mind-balance between the regions and between religions. Every party will send three candidates for every post it is allotted. But the final say will be with Mega.
The vice-presidency is a hot potato right now. Indeed if agreement cannot be reached on this sensitive issue the result could be to destroy Mega's fragile coalition and rock the coming coalition government.
Six names have been put forward by various groups. The United Development Party (PPP) is keen to see its chairman Hamzah Haz take the second slot. Another candidate judged to have a chance is former chief security minister General (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. At least the military will like him. Other manes mentioned are Golkar chief Akbar Tandjung and Crescent-Star Party (PBB) chief Yusril Ihza Mahendra. Amien even put forward the name of Sultan Hamengku Buwono X of Yogyakarta. In Amien's view the governor of Yogyakarta might turn out to be a dark horse since he has not been involved in the recent political conflict.
Matori Abdul Djalil, chairman of Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB), has also been mentioned as a possible. Amien's own name has been put forward by some, but he says he wants to stay where he is at the moment-MPR speaker.
The contest over who will be Mega's sidekick looks likely to be long and hard. PPP has been on the attack right from the start. It has not just put forward a candidate. PPP secretary-general Alimarwan Hanan says they have lobbied intensively for him. Deputy secretary general Bachtiar Chamsyah backs this up. Within the party, there is strong pressure for them to get a nice big piece of the cake out of their involvement in the inter-party caucus. The answer, said Bachtiar, is to give the vice presidency to Hamzah. Hamzah was the only candidate who stood against Megawati in the 1999 vice presidential race after a series of candidates dropped out late.
Akbar has said he does not want the job. On Wednesday last week he said he did not want to enter the ring. "Our party will not put a candidate forward," he said.
But there is pressure from his supporters. Rully, for example, has clearly stated that they are going to push Akbar towards the arena. Perhaps Golkar, the runner up in the 1999 election, may just be playing a game of two-faced politics.
What about Susilo? Asked for his views, the former general just laughed. "I do not want to give a view or a statement on whether I am ready or not," he said. Yusril did much the same. But Amien said it was quite clear Yusril's PBB would push him.
This sensitive matter will soon be discussed. According to the schedule, Amien, Akbar, Hamzah and Yusril are to meet this week. If they come to an agreement, the decision will be brought to a meeting of party chairman in mid July to be approved. But what if they cannot find a solution? Then the decision will have to be taken, once again, through a vote in the special session. Clearly the final score will depend heavily on Mega's own vote.
Where would PDI-P's 185 votes go? Yamin from PDI-P put forward an interesting analysis. Mega has outlined her sidekick must be from the parties. If this is true it means that you can forget Susilo or the Sultan. "Yudhoyono's chance is slim," Yamin said.
Matori is backed by a section of the 'old board' faction within PDI-P, but his chance is also minimal. He is unlikely to get many votes from the Central Axis or Golkar. In the quality of his leadership and his experience in government, Akbar clearly surpasses Yusril and Hamzah. Only the Golkar chief is being investigated by Attorney General Baharuddin Lopa right now over money allegedly missing from the State Logistics Agency Bulog. He is still carrying a heavy load from the past, when he served disgraced former president Suharto as a minister.
That leaves Yusril and Hamzah. And if there was a duel between them, it seems Hamzah has the better chance of victory. Why?
According to Yamin, Hamzah can satisfy a lot of groups. Although he is not in the Wahid fold, he is a figure from Nahdlatul Ulama and can claim to represent the NU masses. Islamic right-wingers also like him, the people who in 1999 strongly opposed a female president. He comes from Ketapang in West Kalimantan and so Hamzah as a non-Javanese can keep the regions happy. He is also the leader of the third largest party, with 70 votes in the MPR and 58 in the DPR. And all these factors will be a good blend. They will strengthen the foundations of Mega's government, so it cannot easily be rocked like the Wahid government.
Well, Amien is still doubtful about the unity of the coalition. On several recent occasions, he has recounted a tale from the War of Uhud during the time of the Prophet Muhammad. After winning one battle, the Muslim soldiers forgot themselves. When the fighting was not yet over, they were busy sharing out the spoils. The archers who were guarding the castle also left their posts to join in the plunder. And they were crushed when the enemy retaliated.
Wahid has not yet been silenced despite two censure motions and impending impeachment. If the 'War of Uhud' plot happens, Wahid will be delighted.
[Karaniya Dharmasaputra, Adi Prasetya, Levi Silalahi, Wens Manggut and Edy Budiyarso.]