Impeachment is not here yet. President Abdurrahman Wahid is not yet absolutely certain to fall. Megawati Sukarnoputri for now remains vice president. But that has not stopped the cross-party caucus pushing their candidates for the vice presidency under 'President Megawati'. Who are the candidates and what are their chances?
Akbar Tandjung
Akbar Tandjung's name was put forward after People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) speaker Amien Rais met with Crescent-Star Party (PBB) chairman Yusril Ihza Mahendra two months ago. At that time, according to Yusril, Amien agreed to find a figure from outside Java to be the new president's number two. That effectively meant Akbar Tandjung, Hamzah Haz or Yusril himself.
As of last week the Golkar party officially had not come out with any name to compete for the vice presidency. Akbar, Golkar's chairman, has long publicly rejected the post.
But under the logic that the winner of the 1999 election has the right to occupy one important post, Akbar's chances would theoretically be good. Golkar got the second largest number of seats in the MPR after Megawati's PDI-P. Apart from that, Akbar is a politician and bureaucrat who has been tested. He was in Suharto's cabinet time and time again, and has served as sports minister and state secretary. He has also been chairman of the influential Islamic Students Association (HMI).
Golkar is playing it smart. As a legacy from Suharto's New Order, its popularity is not that great. A reputation as a Suharto minister is not that much of a recommendation these days. Many groups would find it difficult to accept Akbar as vice president. PKB clearly will oppose him. The Central Axis, especially PPP, clearly would rather choose their own candidate.
Hamzah Haz
The PPP politicians are loudly trumpeting their chairman Hamzah Haz for the vice presidency. Choosing Hamzah, 61, in their view, makes sense because PPP came third in the 1999 election. PDI-P has got its quota, or will: the presidency. Golkar got the speakership of the House of Representatives (DPR) so it is only right that PPP should get the vice presidency.
Hamzah looks to be the favorite in this race. The former coordinating minister for people's welfare is backed by the Central Axis. Amien's PAN has endorsed him, through the chairman of its central board A.M. Fatwa.
Megawati needs Hamzah in a way because of his background as an NU figure. The hope is that the NU people can be slowly convinced again to support Megawati. And because Hamzah comes from West Kalimantan, people outside Java may support him. The Mega-Hamzah duo would also reflect a coalition between nationalists and Islamic groups.
Only it appears Megawati is uncomfortable with Hamzah. However much PDI-P people deny this, is it hard to brush aside. The fact is that before Hamzah was one of those figures who rejected a female president in 1999, only later to 'correct' his position.
Apart from that Hamzah is not very popular with non-Islamic minorities. PPP has put forward the idea of reviving the Jakarta Charter. There are fears that PPP wants to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.
Matori Abdul Djalil
Although he serves as chairman of the president's PKB, Matori Abdul Djalil is known to be close to Megawati. Closer than President Abdurrahman Wahid, in fact. He is the PKB politician who two years ago almost alone backed Megawati for president, not Wahid.
Born in Salatiga, Central Java on July 11, 1942, Matori has been active in politics since he led the Indonesian Islamic Students Union's city branch. His name only emerged on the national stage in the early 1990s when he led resistance by a number of NU politicians within PPP, then dominated by Indonesian Muslims. Wahid chose him to become the leader of PKB "because he is the most political in the NU crowd who generally are ulamas".
Mathematically, Matori's chance is slim. PKB has only 51 seats in the MPR, or 11 percent. Other parties naturally will not immediately support him. The Central Axis clearly wants either Hamzah or Yusril. However, Matori still has some hope. Just say Wahid really does fall and Megawati becomes president. Megawati really will not want PKB, Wahid's party, to totally lose face.
Matori himself has not commented on the vice-presidency. He appears reluctant to be put forward as a candidate. "If this time there are those who already start to talk about the issue of vice presidential candidates, that means they are the ones with ambition," he has said.
Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X
The 56-year-old King of Yogya was a popular figure at the time the reform movement had just begun. In May 1998, two days before former president Suharto resigned, he gave a speech to his people in front of the North Town Square of Yogyakarta. Since that time he has been seen again and again on the national stage.
The name of the sultan has been mentioned every time there is a process of succession of leadership in this country, but only as a dark horse or compromise candidate, as towards the 1999 MPR session which elected Wahid. This time his name has been mentioned again by MPR Speaker Amien Rais. Amien told Tempo there was a possibility that the vice presidency could be filled by a figure from outside the DPR like the sultan because he was seen as a figure who was quite credible and was never involved in conflict.
So what are his chances? Small. The sultan is not a political figure with great influence. Although involved in political meetings like the 1998 Ciganjur I and the 2000 Yogyakarta Meeting, attended by national figures like Akbar, Amien, Megawati and Wahid, the sultan is seen more as a figure of spiritual and traditional strength. His true supporters are only the people of Yogyakarta and the area around it. Outside Java, his name is scarcely heard and his influence minimal. He also does not have a base in the political parties. As if he really gained the vice-presidency, he might be accused of being a leader who did not work for it.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
It is hard to see a military man leading this country again any time soon. Yet it must be admitted that the TNI represents has an established system of leadership training. And so the name of the former chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has emerged in the ring of the vice presidential candidates.
Susilo's chances are quite good, especially if the Mega-Hamzah or Mega-Matori duos fail at the special session. Susilo can be accepted by the political parties and of course by the TNI itself. He is helped by his image of an intellectual soldier. Apart from that, many people see him as a sturdy figure with a high level of integrity. Susilo, for example, dared to oppose Wahid's plan for a state of emergency, which resulted in him being kicked out of the cabinet.
However, the way to a Megawati-Susilo duo is clearly not straight or clear. As a former member of the TNI, there could be strong resistance to the idea of Vice President Susilo.
Susilo himself rejects talk of the vice presidency and his chances. The former chief security minister takes the view that it is not ethical to talk about the issue when there is still someone in the presidency and the vice presidency right now. He says that there are many 'best sons of the nation' who have integrity, capability and support from the people. Yusril Ihza Mahendra
Born in Belitung on February 5, 1956, Yusril's name suddenly became popular when he became an important player in the change of national leadership in May 1998. He was the one who prepared the speeches of former president Suharto, including for the steps to his resignation.
Two months ago, Yusril met MPR Speaker Amien at the DPR building to talk about problems which the country would face, including choosing a vice president if Megawati becomes president. Since that time Yusril has been cited in the contest to become Mega's number two.
What would he bring apart from chairmanship of the Crescent-Star Party? His party is even far smaller than Wahid's PKB. This is what makes many people pessimistic about his chances. However, this legal expert has experience as a bureaucrat, expert staff member at the state secretariat and justice and human rights ministers, and also an activist when he was still a student.
Although the chairman of the PBB's faction in the DPR, Ahmad Sumargono, says his party is ready to support Yusril, no other party has offered to help. The Central Axis looks likely to choose Hamzah over this lecturer in constitutional law. Also, as the chairman of an Islamic party which tends to be rather closed, Yusril clearly will not be accepted by non-Islamic groups.