Tomi Soetjipto, Jakarta – Indonesian Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri's expected rise to power is likely to be clouded by the same opportunistic politicking that has plagued her hapless boss.
Megawati's problem, analysts say, is that she may be forced to rule with a government of dubious loyalty, and one as unwieldy as the one which has marked President Abdurrahman Wahid's often divisive 20 months in office. And that means, analysts say, a President Megawati may not give the crisis-racked country much more than short-term relief.
Wahid looks likely to be impeached in August but the Muslim cleric, currently on a foreign tour, warned he would declare a state of emergency if legislators pushed him down that path.
While for many Megawati would at least be an improvement on Wahid's erratic leadership, the doubts lie longer term. Analysts say she may be hard-pressed to keep in line the elite of her Indonesian Democratic Party-struggle (PDI-P), the country's largest.
On top of that will be other political groups anxious for a slice of power if Wahid is ditched, and a rejuvenated military, eager to capitalise on its repolished role as the nation's saviour. "She will be in a very delicate position," Aberson M. Sihasolo, an MP and long-time Megawati supporter, told Reuters.
Most factions in parliament support Megawati over Wahid, putting the presidency – first held in Indonesia by her charismatic father Sukarno – within her sights.
No dream-team
But her own PDI-P party is no dream team. It was formed three years ago as a splinter group of another party which the government of former autocratic ruler Suharto blocked her from leading. Before then, the mother of two was barely known beyond her family connections.
But it was Suharto, the man who ousted her father in the mid-1960s, who unwittingly dragged her into the political limelight when he ousted her as chief of the smallest of the three parties his military-back regime allowed.
When Suharto's hand-picked successor, B.J. Habibie, allowed new parties, she set up her PDI-P splinter group which went on to win the most seats in a 1999 general election. That power – the result of the party's huge popularity among Indonesia's legions of poor – has also tempted in a smorgasbord of politicians and entrepreneurs, some of whom blossomed first under Suharto's rule.
Some of Megawati's leading party cadres, including her inner circle, are former members of Suharto's political vehicle, the Golkar party, or were linked to his regime. Among the most notable is Arifin Panigoro, a former Golkar member whose oil business prospered during the Suharto era and who is at the forefront of the movement to topple Wahid and head of the party's parliamentary faction.
'Dormitory kids'
His meteoric career within the PDI-P and closeness to Megawati has irked other party members, especially long-serving Megawati loyalists who feel sidelined by the newcomers, whom the media has dubbed "dormitory kids", a derogatory term for people who move from place to place showing no loyalty to one home. Panigoro is now a target of a Wahid government investigation into alleged corruption at one his companies.
Then there is Megawati's husband, her third, Taufik Kiemas who is repeatedly linked in the local media to shady business deals though he denies any underhand dealings or abusing his political connections. Analysts warn he could provide ammunition for Megawati detractors, but her supporters insist she can deal with it.
"There has been negative talk swirling around about Taufik but I can assure you she wouldn't let him do things she didn't approve of," PDI-P legislator, Meilono Soewondo said.
And, her supporters say, she has the ability to bond her party despite the bickering and rivalry. "Once she says 'no', then everybody says 'no'," the secretary general of her party, Sutjipto, said.
Her placid public image and ability to stay out of the political fray may also be her greatest weapon, winning sympathy from an electorate fed up with years of economic crisis and the failure of squabbling politicians to deal with problems.
No blank cheque
As the political establishment has turned on Wahid, so Megawati's one-time enemies have been currying favour with her in return for a share of the action if and when Wahid is toppled. "What we really want is a coalition cabinet with the other parties," A.M. Fatwa, deputy speaker of parliament and a leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN) said.
His party was instrumental in forming the coalition which pushed Megawati aside and brought Wahid to power in the 1999 presidential election. When he took office, Wahid ruled with a "rainbow cabinet" made up of his disparate backers which spent more time squabbling than ruling.
Megawati's one-time rivals, many from that coalition and who are now pushing her into the presidency, insist she should give them a voice in government. "We [political parties] don't want to hand Megawati a blank cheque," deputy speaker of the country's top legislative body, Husnie Thamrin told Reuters. "The cheque that we are giving her is an agreement for a government structure, the cabinet ministers, its programme and priorities," said Thamrin, a senior official from the Muslim-oriented United Development Party.