Hamish McDonald – Within an hour of arriving in Canberra from a gruelling journey from Jakarta, Abdurrahman Wahid was plunged into a succession of discussions and engagements last night.

What the Indonesian president was telling old friends privately would astonish and discomfort the Soeharto-era holdovers from the military and the Golkar party ganging up against him behind his vice-president, Megawati Sukarnoputri. Mr Wahid is supremely confident he has the numbers in the People's Consultative Assembly or MPR to defeat the impeachment motion being brought against him in August.

Coming to Australia and New Zealand is part of his strategy of unsettling his foes. "He's not behaving as frightened as they want him to be," said one close associate who travelled from Jakarta with Mr Wahid. "How many leaders in his position would leave the country for a week?"

From his domestic political point of view, Mr Wahid may welcome the foreshadowed pressure from Australia's John Howard and New Zealand's Helen Clark for prosecutions over the 1999 violence in East Timor and decisive action to end the militia threat from West Timor.

The president's confidants insist he has tried to do much more on the human rights front, in Aceh and Irian Jaya as well as the Timor case, but has been prevented by the nationalist coalition spearheaded by Ms Megawati. They agree the threat of an international criminal court, if Indonesia itself cannot bring the East Timor prime suspects to justice, may actually strengthen Mr Wahid's hand – provided it is conveyed in a way that respects the President's own efforts.

A switch of power to Ms Megawati will not be neutral in its effects, these supporters of Mr Wahid insist. "She is no longer inscrutable, we know what she means," one said, citing the vice-president's support for a military solution to the secessionist uprising in Aceh.

Another said: "Heaven knows what will happen in West Papua [as its indigenous people call Irian Jaya] if he is impeached and Mega becomes president." Referring to the notorious East Timorese militia leader who has positioned himself on the militant fringes of Ms Megawati's party, this source added: "You may even see Eurico Guterres back in action, in Papua."