Louise Williams – As the torturous "death watch" over the presidency of Abdurrahman Wahid draws to a close his raucous political opponents will be able to claim only the most hollow of short-term victories.

For the people of Indonesia the demise of their first democratically elected president in more than three decades must represent a profound loss. The immediate winners will be the power elite of old, the Machiavellian players who honed their skills under the tutelage of the former authoritarian leader Soeharto.

The losers all those ordinary Indonesians who believed Soeharto's dramatic fall three years ago would represent the dawning of a new era; one in which a democratically elected government would finally deliver the justice, peace and accountability they craved.

Even if a last-minute "face-saving" compromise is found that sees Wahid resign but stay on in some kind of "wise old man" capacity massive damage has already been done.

The euphoria over Soeharto's fall in May 1998 and the optimism of the largely peaceful national polls of the following year have long evaporated. The reality is, the long and complex process to remove Wahid from office that began at the start of this year had political power as its driving force.

Ostensibly, Wahid was to be called to account over corruption claims that would lead to his scheduled impeachment on August 1. However, on May 29, the Attorney-General cleared him of any personal involvement in the two scandals. His political opponents decided to push ahead anyway, accusing him of incompetent and erratic leadership instead.

Many of those pushing for Wahid's impeachment have links to the former Soeharto regime and the military. Others have long opposed Wahid, such as the parliamentary Speaker, Amien Rais, emerging now to claim Wahid will be dragged off in chains if he refuses to leave the presidential palace.

As often happens when a dictator falls, the disparate political groups that formed a powerful bloc in opposition disintegrate into squabbling factions when power is finally up for grabs. At the same time there is never any shortage of rats who fled the ship before it sank, eager to be rehabilitated into the power elite under a new banner.

The Indonesian political quagmire is sinking under the ambitions of too many individuals, with too little regard for the cost of political infighting in a poor, fractured nation. Throughout the slow tightening of the noose around Wahid's neck Indonesia has slid further into paralysis.

From increasing violence in the northern breakaway province of Aceh, where 21 separatists were reported killed this weekend alone, to the unchecked logging of national parks and the nation's few remaining tropical rainforest, the absence of effective Government is taking its toll. The tragedy is not the fate of any individual politician, it is the beggars on the streets, the run-down schools, the lousy health services and the everyday violence over petty insults and crimes of opportunity.

Detractors blame Wahid personally for failing to implement any real policies. But, in truth he has been unable to make headway in crucial areas such as prosecuting military officers over atrocities in East Timor or negotiating peaceful settlements with independence movements in Irian Jaya or Aceh, because powerful forces in the military would not allow him to do so.

Ironically, even Wahid's threat to declare a state of emergency could not succeed because as President he did not have the obedience of the armed forces. His removal will merely shift the political battleground but will not directly address the critical economic and social problems that continue to overwhelm the world's fourth most-populous nation.

Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri will inherit a nation beset by economic woes, violent separatist conflicts, rampant environmental destruction, widespread lawlessness, corruption and human-rights abuses. There may be little honeymoon for Megawati when she takes office as political parties begin jockeying for dominance in advance of the next election in 2004.

The problem with Indonesia, says a new group of young ideologues, is that of political power itself. Without a commitment to the common good, the revolving door will keep turning, with many of the same old faces going in and out in the name – but not the spirit of – democracy.