Vaudine England, Denpasar – Bali is supposed to be a powerhouse of support for Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, but interviews with activists and members of the local elite suggest such support can no longer be assumed.

"Some of us are really disappointed," said Putu Suasta, a well-connected community organiser who leads the Forum Merah Putih, or Red and White Forum, named after the colours of the Indonesian flag. "Megawati still has mass support here but her party and organisation have failed to deliver. They are not effective," said Mr Putu, formerly a strong supporter of Ms Megawati.

She has long been popular among the masses of Bali. Family ties through her mother's side have helped, as has the Balinese tradition of seeking a path that is separate from the influences of larger, more powerful and more Islamic Java to the west.

When Ms Megawati campaigned for the presidency in 1999, Bali was a "sea of red", reflecting vast parades and banners in the red and black symbols of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). When she failed to grab the top seat in October 1999, losing to Abdurrahman Wahid, her Balinese fans went on the rampage, blocking roads, felling trees, burning tyres and vandalising public buildings, banks and shops.

There is now less than two months to go before a bruising special session of the country's highest constitutional body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which will decide whether to oust Mr Wahid in favour of his deputy.

Asked if Bali would erupt once more in violent support of their idol, if she again fails to become president, several people interviewed said the passion to provoke such anger had passed. "I believe nothing will happen. People don't care now," said Mr Putu. "Even if they love Megawati, people know that the PDI-P doesn't work here. It doesn't function for them, so they don't care. There will be no violence."

The problem, agreed a political analyst, was that the PDI-P had grown too large, too fast and had failed to consolidate its gains. In contrast to the approach of former ruling party Golkar, which co-opted feudal and royal symbols and individuals to perpetuate the party's power, the PDI-P has focused on the lower-class masses.

"PDI-P is populist. We call it the cock-fighting party because it collects support from the uneducated and the poor," said the analyst. "It encourages gambling to keep people happy. It does not try to educate and uplift the people."

After almost two years of greater openness under Mr Wahid, some Balinese sentiment has shifted towards the Muslim leader who dared to admit and apologise for the murderous excesses of Muslim gangs that sparked widespread killings of alleged communists in Bali in the mid-1960s. "My father was killed in those times. So when Wahid apologised, even people like my grandmother decided they could now love Gus Dur [Mr Wahid's nickname]," a Balinese intellectual said.

Beyond the emotions about a now-emerging recent past, Ms Megawati's support in Bali has been damaged most by her failure to manage her political party. "You can go to the head office of PDI-P here and you will find only mosquitoes. You won't find anyone ready to help you or meet your needs," said Mr Putu.

He said party offices should be grappling with basic problems facing Bali – environmental chaos, land disputes and the growing confusion about how to implement regional autonomy.

"The party should be serving its constituents. But PDI-P people don't understand administration and are too busy fighting each other," he said. "Most PDI-P people here have no brains and there are lots of 'guests' in the party," said Mr Putu, referring to people who have joined the party recently to get ahead, without contributing to local politics and problem management. Such comments suggest that if Ms Megawati wants to be sure of support in the MPR in August, personal charisma may not be enough.

Greater scrutiny of politicians through a freer press and an upsurge in problems caused by efforts to exercise new local powers through regional autonomy suggest the goalposts have moved. In a province such as Bali, where the PDI-P swept the elections, the party's inaction has been noted.