Lindsay Murdoch, Jakarta – Taufik Kiemas, the wealthy businessman husband of Megawati Sukarnoputri, sent a recent message to Abdurrahman Wahid at the presidential palace in Jakarta: "What would it take for you to resign?" Despite Mr Wahid's political isolation amid a bitter power struggle with MPs, he ignored the message, which some near him interpreted as the offer of a bribe.
The breakdown of good relations between Mr Wahid and the Vice-President, friends most of their lives, is now painfully obvious. She wants power, sooner if not later. He is desperate to remain leader of the world's fourth most populous nation.
Analysts in Jakarta say that with Mr Wahid's executive authority irreversibly undermined, his only chance of remaining president until elections scheduled for 2004 is to do a deal with Ms Megawati.
But the daughter of Indonesia's first president, and leader of the country's largest political party, is fuelling political uncertainty by keeping everybody guessing about her immediate intentions.
Seven ministers loyal to Mr Wahid have offered her a deal that would see her run the Government while Mr Wahid takes a more ceremonial role, handling matters such as international relations, national ideology and religion.
One of the ministers who took the offer to Ms Megawati said she reacted indecisively. "Is it correct for me to accept this?" she said. "As Vice-President, I can do it. But as party chair, I cannot give any guarantee to the President." Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is bitterly divided over whether she should agree to the deal.
"Gus Dur's [Wahid's] time is up. We will reject a solution on these lines," said Meilono Soewondo, a member of a faction pushing for Mr Wahid's impeachment at a special sitting of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the parliament.
Yet asked soon after the offer was made if he was prepared to give Ms Megawati more power, Mr Wahid became angry. "What more power? I have given everything to her except two things," he said. "An agreement was reached a long time ago that the Vice-President would preside over Cabinet meetings, take care of the technical matters of the Government and I would supervise the basic outline of Cabinet policies and the appointment of state officials." With few political friends left, Mr Wahid has become increasingly unpredictable.
In response to a second parliamentary censure last month he threatened to impose martial law and dissolve parliament. He may have had no intention of doing so, seeking only to frighten rivals, but the military's response showed how weak his presidency is.
The army chief, General Endriartono Sutarto, said: "We told [Mr Wahid] that the nation is nearly in a state of collapse and does not need yet another burden. Therefore we have advised him not to issue such an order." Most observers praised the military's stand.
Scenarios that might end the crisis, analysts say, include a Cabinet reshuffle, dissolving parliament and calling a general election, impeachment or forced resignation for Mr Wahid, or power-sharing with Ms Megawati.
Most of Jakarta's political elite, including those close to Mr Wahid, agree the crisis is too serious to be prolonged.
Under the 1945 Constitution, only a vice-president can replace the president between elections, and moves to impeach Mr Wahid would not succeed without the support of PDI-P in the MPR.
But sources close to Ms Megawati say that while she keenly wants to be president she is reluctant to take the job amid acrimony. Mr Wahid, meanwhile, is turning up the heat on her.
Muhaimin Iskandar, an executive of his National Awakening Party, said this week Ms Megawati should resign and position herself as an outsider if she wanted a clean fight with Mr Wahid. "Ms Mega is still an insider, so as long as she is still the Vice-President she should not be complaining about the performance of the government," he said.
One issue that has divided Mr Wahid and Ms Megawati has been how to handle separatist movements in Aceh. Mr Wahid argued that crushing the rebels in a military offensive would further alienate the Acehnese. Last month he reluctantly signed a decree authorising an offensive that has resulted in the deaths of scores of people. Ms Megawati, a fierce nationalist, had sided with hardline sections of the military to push for sending more troops and staging a crackdown.
The two are also at odds over independence groups in Irian Jaya (West Papua). Ms Megawati has spoken privately of resigning over the Government's incompetence. That would send shock waves through the country, complicating the crisis and perhaps prompting millions of her supporters to take to the streets.
The next critical date in this drama is May 30, when MPs are scheduled to respond to Mr Wahid's reply on the second parliamentary censure. MPs will have to decide whether to vote for convening the MPR, where Mr Wahid can be asked to account for his behaviour and face possible impeachment.
Many observers say impeachment seems inevitable, but nothing is certain in the opaque world of Indonesian politics. After saying for months there was no alternative to Mr Wahid's dismissal, the influential Muslim leader and parliamentary Speaker, Amien Rais, appears to have changed his mind.