Shoeb Kagda, Jakarta – Indonesia's Parliament yesterday issued a second censure against embattled President Abdurrahman Wahid, raising the political temperature to a new high, but the besieged leader's political career may not be over just yet.

Despite the second censure, which could pave the way for the president's impeachment by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), high-ranking members of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDIP) told The Business Times that closed-door negotiations to hammer out a political compromise were continuing.

The PDIP, led by Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, is trying to forge a political deal that would keep Mr Abdurrahman in office but with significantly reduced authority and influence. But any such deal would depend on the willingness of Mr Abdurrahman to effectively hand over the reins of government to his popular deputy, a move he has so far rejected.

According to the PDIP sources, the party has approached both the National Awakening Party (PKB), Mr Abdurrahman's political vehicle, and the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organisation in Indonesia, which he headed before being elected president, to help negotiate the compromise.

Yesterday, the PDIP, which is the largest party in the House of Representatives (DPR), joined seven other factions, including Golkar and the National Development Party (PPP), the second and third largest parties respectively, in rebuking the president for not fully accounting for his actions involving two financial scandals that led to the first memorandum in February. "PDIP has concluded that the president has really not paid full attention to the first censure, so PDIP proposes to Parliament to issue a second censure," noted legislator Dwi Ria Latifa, who read out the party's stance.

Ms Latifa, however, denied the rebuke was an attempt to bring Mr Abdurrahman's stormy 17-month rule to an early end, although many political analysts have said it would take the Muslim leader further down the road towards possible impeachment. "If PDIP's proposal is accepted by Parliament, and Parliament decides to issue a second censure against President Abdurrahman Wahid, it should be viewed as far from efforts to topple the president, but [as an effort] to warn him," she told the House.

Under Indonesia's Constitution, only the MPR, the nation's highest legislative body, can remove the president through a special session. If Mr Abdurrahman, or Gus Dur as he is popularly called, is forced out or steps down voluntarily, the vice-president will automatically replace him.

Following the second censure, Gus Dur now has 30 days to respond. If the DPR is still dissatisfied with the president's reply, it can instruct the MPR to convene a special session to begin the impeachment process.

The ongoing political battle between Gus Dur and his political opponents in Parliament will, however, cast a long shadow over the country's fragile economic recovery and will further hurt its already weakened currency. The rupiah, the world's worst performing currency this year, has already lost more than 15 per cent of its value against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, while the economy is showing signs of a slowdown after posting a healthy 4.7 per cent GDP growth last year. "I do not see a clear path from here on," said Andre Cita from Kim Eng Securities Indonesia. "We are looking at a few months of uncertainty, and that will weigh on financial markets."

And although feared clashes between the president's supporters and his critics on the streets of Jakarta did not materialise yesterday, concern remains over security in the nation's capital. Thousands of pro-Gus Dur supporters have descended on Jakarta from his East Java stronghold and yesterday about 3,000 marched to the Parliament building in driving rain before turning back to avoid confrontation with security forces.

"It seems the security forces are well prepared to deal with the situation, but they may not be able to maintain the heightened sense of alertness for too long," noted one foreign businessman. "Our worry is how long this process will drag on."

Many offices and banks were either closed yesterday or had let their staff off early because of fears of unrest. Although Gus Dur has called for peace, some of his more extreme loyalists have formed paramilitary squads and said they were ready to die for him.