Seth Mydans, Jakarta – April 30 – Legislators today overwhelmingly censured President Abdurrahman Wahid for corruption and incompetence, setting the stage for possible impeachment of the nation's first democratically elected leader in four decades.

Mr. Wahid will have 30 days to make a formal reply. He is a tough political infighter, but he has already expended most of his political capital. The likelihood is that Parliament will reject his reply in June and will call for formal impeachment proceedings to begin. In the view of many experts here, opposition to Mr. Wahid has reached a critical mass, just 18 months after he took office. "The striking thing here is that there is a fairly impressive consensus – not unanimous but still a consensus – among the political elite here in Jakarta about what is likely to happen," Donald K. Emmerson, an expert on Indonesia who teaches political science at Stanford University, said on Sunday.

But political forces and personal agendas here are complex and contradictory. Mutual enemies are more plentiful than mutual friends. The fate of Mr. Wahid has not yet been sealed. There are scenarios and sub-scenarios still to be played out. The powerful vice president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose most eloquent statements consist of her silences, declined to criticize the pending censure motion. And she was suddenly too sick on Friday – "She really is sick," a spokesman said – to join Mr. Wahid when he pleaded on national television for understanding.

Mr. Wahid cannot have been a happy man in delivering his speech, which, because he is nearly blind, was read for him by his spokesman, Wimar Witoelar. Though Mr. Wahid has publicly disparaged both the Parliament and Mrs. Megawati in the past, he was elaborately respectful to them this time, adding, "If I am thought to have made mistakes or failed in any way, I ask to be understood and forgiven."

Then he added: "The condition of our nation is of enormous concern. But even if we were to change the president 100 times a year, nothing would be able to restore our inundated economy in short order."

A different president might be a better manager, more focused and less abrasive than Mr. Wahid, and might have more success in calming the political battles that have sapped his energy. But the continuing slide in the economy is perhaps more threatening to his survival than those battles. In 1998, after years of slowly building opposition, it was an economic crash that finally put an end to the 32-year rule of President Suharto. The currency, the rupiah, is falling steeply again, approaching the depths that touched off the economic panic of Mr. Suharto's final months.

Indonesia's feeble economic growth is slowing again. Inflation is rising. And in what looked like a vote of no confidence, the International Monetary Fund this month declined to approve disbursement of $400 million in scheduled assistance. What underlies all of those problems, economists say, is the uncertainty caused by Indonesia's continuing political instability.

And whether Mr. Wahid stays or goes, stability may take a long time to come. His successor would be Mrs. Megawati, Indonesia's most popular politician. But it is not certain that she wants to inherit Mr. Wahid's problems or to step into the political line of fire at this time. One possible scenario is that Mr. Wahid would be forced into some form of power sharing with her, a compromise that holds out as much promise of failure as success.

Whoever is president, this is still the post-Suharto period, a chaotic time of power struggles at all levels – from the presidency down to feuding island sultanates. No one seems to be in charge, and no one knows the shape of a future Indonesia. "After becoming president," Mr. Wahid said in his speech, "it became apparent that before me there was nothing but jagged debris, the ruined wreck of the former administration – an enormous foreign debt, an economy in disorder, social injustices, conflagrations and accusations springing up everywhere."

And there was political infighting. After decades of repression, new political parties, religious factions, military blocs and ambitious politicians all began to grab for a share of power. The impeachment process began in February with the passage of a first censure motion, based on two corruption charges that almost everyone agrees are beside the point. "The pretense that it is about corruption has largely eroded," said Greg Barton, an Australian expert on Indonesia. "The real issue is just a power grab."

Reacting with what many Indonesians saw as arrogance, evasiveness and a lack of commitment to the country's problems, Mr. Wahid failed to avert Monday's session, the second step in the process. And as he fought for his political life, he seemed to condone the formation of armed "suicide squads" of his supporters, who have poured into Jakarta from the countryside in recent days in what looks like a tactic of intimidation.

"This is not the leader we were looking for," said Jusuf Wanandi, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. "He was supposed to be the great democrat, but when his survival is at stake, he has sold his principles down the drain."