Lindsay Murdoch, Jakarta – A wayang kulit, or shadow puppet, called Kumbakarna sits behind President Abdurrahman Wahid's desk in his Jakarta palace.

Mr Wahid has joked it depicts perfectly a member of the Muslim organisation that gives him his strongest support, the 40-million strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU). Kumbakarna's job is to pray and sleep, but if the country is threatened he will fight to the death.

But with the Wahid Government paralysed by a bitter leadership battle among the political elite and the country careering towards economic and social chaos, the joke has become serious. At stake is the country's fragile transition from corrupt dictatorship to one of the world's largest democracies.

One increasingly likely scenario is that tens of thousands of Mr Wahid's NU supporters will soon take to the streets, provoking bloodshed the security forces will be unable to stop from spreading throughout the archipelago.

Analysts say that unless the leadership vacuum can be quickly filled, the economy could be plunged into an even more serious crisis than the meltdown of 1997-98, prompting a desperate population to take the law into their own hands.

Mr Jusuf Wanandi, an analyst at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said MPs and other political leaders were being irresponsible, thinking only of how to bring down Mr Wahid.

"Nobody among them thinks about the interests of the nation as a whole," he said, adding that the situation was so desperate, "a high sense of urgency is now needed among the political elite".

Many commentators, diplomats and parts of the Indonesian media have started calling for the elite to compromise.

They are backing a meeting between Mr Wahid, Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri and political powerbrokers Mr Akbar Tanjung, of Golkar, the former ruling party, and Dr Amien Rais, the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, the top legislature. In an editorial this week the Jakarta Post said: "The lack of effective government in Indonesia these past few months has pushed Indonesia further to the brink of destruction ... the leaders should work out a compromise that is truly in the interests of the country."

Mr Wahid is desperate. His latest strategy is to jail people plotting his downfall, many of whom are allegedly corrupt cronies of former President Soeharto.

But his fate lies largely with Ms Megawati, who, in the style of ancient Javanese royalty, refuses to say whether she would support Mr Wahid's impeachment or whether she wants to be president. Only a vice-president can replace a president mid-term.

Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle holds the most seats in parliament. Their votes would be needed for a successful impeachment.

Ms Megawati is deeply unhappy with Mr Wahid's erratic leadership and personal criticisms of her, although she and he are old friends. Her silence has added to the crisis.

A special session of the assembly, where Mr Wahid could be impeached, cannot be convened until late July or August, at the earliest. But as regional and local conflicts break out from Aceh to Irian Jaya, and the economy free falls, the country cannot wait until then for the leadership impasse to be resolved.

Ms Megawati's aides said she was worried that if she was seen to be involved in Mr Wahid's downfall she would provoke his supporters' ire. She does not want to be blamed if bloodshed erupts.

To become president she would have to compromise with Mr Tanjung and Dr Rais, who turned on her when she ran for president in 1999 and who are now leading the charge to unseat Mr Wahid.

Ms Megawati fears that if she takes office before the scheduled elections in 2004 they would do the same to her. But analysts say that for the sake of the nation Ms Megawati should push for a political compromise.

[On April 14, Agence France Presse reported that national assembly chairperson Amien Rais said Abdurrahman Wahid was not sincere in his offer to hold talks with his foremost critics who are trying to oust him. Rais was quoted by the Antara news agency as saying: "I agree with the offer, but what's the agenda? I don't think he's serious ... I think it's just an empty political commodity" - James Balowski.]