Warren Caragata and Amy Chew,Jakarta – Kasmiran is a motorcyle taxi driver from Gresik, an industrial town in East Java – Gus Dur country. Recently, he made the 650 km journey to Jakarta to show his support for his compatriot, otherwise known as President Abdurrahman Wahid. Kasmiran is angry not only because his hero's rivals are trying to force Wahid from power, but because he believes the moves are being orchestrated by Golkar, the party of the ousted dictator Suharto. Kasmiran's conflict with that organization began when he was 10 years old. "A Golkar official wanted to throw me to the police for tearing down their party's poster," he said during a recent march outside parliament. "I was so scared." To Kasmiran, Golkar's possible return to power is a nightmare that must be stopped. "The people will again be oppressed," he worries.
The demonstrators for and against Wahid who have shaken Jakarta in the past few months have mostly been university students. In a country where 40% of children aged 16 to 18 drop out of school, that's a pretty narrow band of society. Indonesia's poor – workers and farmers – have not yet taken to the streets in large numbers, or even taken sides in the battle that began when parliament initiated the impeachment process against Wahid in February. "They feel it doesn't affect them," says Budiman Sudjatmiko, leader of the People's Democratic Party, Indonesia's only labor party.
With one exception: Gus Dur's mostly rural loyalists from East Java. They have been pouring into Jakarta, making it easier to tell anti- and pro-Wahid protests apart – call it cellphone toters versus sandal wearers. And that is raising fears that political rivalry could turn into class and religious conflict.
The potential for violence was already evident in pro-Wahid protests that have taken place in East Java, heartland of Indonesia's largest Muslim organization, the Nahdlatul Ulama, which claims 40 million largely rural followers. Wahid ran the group for 15 years before stepping down to assume the presidency. Incensed at attempts to unseat their prince, NU supporters burned offices belonging to Golkar and the party of Amien Rais, speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the country's highest parliamentary body which has the power to impeach the president. NU leaders threaten to bring "one or two million people to Jakarta" to defend the president, even while noting the dangers of such a move.
The conflict between Wahid and Rais illustrates another element in the mix – a religious divide. While Wahid and Rais are both Muslims, they represent very different strains of Islam. Before becoming a full-time politician, Rais ran the country's second-largest Islamic group, Muhammadiyah. Its members are generally urban and well-educated. NU members generally are neither. Rais's supporters are considered "modernist" and religiously conservative, compared to the relatively tolerant tradition of rural Islam that Wahid represents. "Modernists and traditionalists are like oil and water," says NU deputy secretary-general Masduki Baidlawi. "It is not possible for the two to come together." Any engagement could only be explosive.
"If parliament is used as a Trojan horse for the New Order [Suharto's regime], there will be a challenge from the street," says People's Democrat Budiman. So far there have been only minor clashes between Wahid supporters and demonstrators who want him to step down. But as the impeachment proceeds, many worry that the clashes could rip the country apart. Golkar leader Akbar Tanjung highlights the fears in arguing for a compromise: "There will be widespread violence if we overthrow [Wahid]."
Wahid himself shows little inclination to step back from battle. In an hour-long speech to parliament answering a February censure motion over two financial scandals, the president went on the offensive, saying his accusers have no legal standing and insisting he never benefited personally. MPs from all parties except Wahid's small caucus say they would probably proceed with a second censure motion at the end of April.
Wahid then would have the right to respond within 30 days. If parliament rejects Wahid's second reply, it can call for a special session of the MPR to impeach him and promote Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri to the top job.
As head of PDI-P, the largest party in parliament, Megawati's position is crucial – but unclear. Her top deputy Arifin Panigoro says a second censure is likely, and senior advisers are among Wahid's most vehement critics. But while Megawati has unleashed her attackers, she has not yet thrown away the leash. And she has not called her loyalists onto the streets. During the 1999 elections, Megawati had the most grassroots support. When she was outmaneuvered for the presidency, even though PDI-P won the most parliamentary seats, demonstrations by her supporters were among the biggest and most unruly.
Today, with the presidency seemingly within her grasp again, Megawati's party remains divided on whether to push her old friend Wahid from power.
Sources close to the vice president say that she has reservations about the unpredictable consequences of impeachment. Her biggest worry is that the political feud will eventually be settled in the streets, that people like Kasmiran – his friends and his enemies – will decide Indonesia's fate. That would be a struggle with no winners.