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Wahid's survival plan may be too late to save him

Source
South China Morning Post - March 3, 2001

Vaudine England, Jakarta – Anger is growing over the continued absence of President Abdurrahman Wahid at a time of ethnic slaughter on the island of Borneo and alleged corruption charges against him.

But government sources say the beleaguered leader's decision to stay in the Middle East and go on the haj, or pilgrimage, to Mecca is a key part of his political survival campaign.

"It is speculation but I hope Mr Wahid will say he's done some soul-searching and that God whispered in his ear to make some changes," a cabinet source said.

Mr Wahid faces growing pressure to resign or face impeachment over the graft allegations, and his apparent lack of concern for the brutal deaths of hundreds of Madurese migrants in central Kalimantan in the past two weeks has only added to the indignation. Mr Wahid says he has the right to rule and cannot be toppled by an angry Parliament.

But sources close to him admit he knows he needs to offer some concessions to Parliament to stay in office. He has a survival plan, they say.

"He is playing to buy time. The closer he lasts until [the next scheduled elections in] 2004, the more people will realise they may as well wait," said the cabinet source.

Among the damage control mechanisms Mr Wahid hopes to use will be an attempted cabinet reshuffle and a new version of the old idea of sharing power with Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, perhaps through a council of ministers.

The source said Mr Wahid plans to appoint a candidate offered by Parliament to fill the vacant post of chief justice of the supreme court, namely Bagir Manan. He has fought against Parliament's chosen candidates for the job, including Mr Manan, for four months. "It's an unnecessary delay, but the appointment will help blunt opposition to him in Parliament a little bit," he said.

"He also wants to meet Laksamana Sukardi," another cabinet member said. Mr Sukardi was a minister in Mr Wahid's first cabinet but was sacked when the President found his stand against compromise with corrupt conglomerates to be inconvenient.

Sources outside Mr Wahid's Government say even these damage control efforts will not save him. Mr Sukardi is a loyal lieutenant to Ms Megawati, and would not respond to any peace offering from Mr Wahid, claimed one of his friends.

Mr Wahid's chief security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is also beginning to distance himself from the President amid continuing rumours of his desire to resign.

Ms Megawati is unlikely to accept a newly drawn version of power sharing given her frustration with unfulfilled promises from Mr Wahid. This week, she told members of the Muhammadiyah, a Muslim organisation in competition with Mr Wahid's Nahdlatul Ulama, that she supported only the office of the President, not the President himself.

The armed forces are also making their views plain. They already refused a request from the President last month to dissolve Parliament when it was about to start impeachment proceedings. Now its leaders say only it can help restore order.

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