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Year of violence and anarchy ahead, agency warns cabinet

Source
South China Morning Post - December 29, 2000

Jake Lloyd-Smith, Jakarta – Indonesia's main intelligence agency is warning that the country is set for a tumultuous year ahead with a rise in separatist pressures and civil disturbances.

The confidential paper, prepared by Bakin, the state intelligence agency, for presentation to the cabinet, says Indonesia faces "a domestic security picture for 2001 that is extremely stormy".

A summary of the 36-page document was obtained by the South China Morning Post and its contents were verified with security contacts in the Indonesian capital.

The draft was compiled before a string of bomb blasts hit churches across the country on Christmas Eve, killing at least 15 people and injuring dozens more.

Indonesia, home to the world's largest Muslim population, remained calm yesterday as millions of people celebrated the second day of Eid al-Fitr, the end of Islam's fasting month.

There was no visible security presence on Jakarta's streets, and no reports of further attacks on Christian targets or retaliatory strikes against Muslims.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the provocative terrorist outburst, which President Abdurrahman Wahid described as a bid to destabilise his already embattled administration. The incidents have raised suspicion that elements of the military could be behind the latest campaign.

The summary of the Bakin report said that the continued weakness of the economy, with sluggish growth, a volatile exchange rate and rising inflation, would fuel a rise in instability.

The agency also advised ministers that crime was set to worsen, and that problems associated with drug abuse would increase, possibly leading to what Bakin termed a "lost generation".

Separatist pressure and violent outbreaks across the archipelago could gain further momentum, the summary said, pinpointing Aceh, in northern Sumatra, Irian Jaya – also known as West Papua – in the east of the country, and the Maluku islands.

The three regions have seen serious violence over recent years, with separatist movements active in Aceh and Irian Jaya, and vicious inter-communal conflict leading to thousands of fatalities in the Malukus.

The strife in the Malukus has been linked to elements of the military bent on subverting the elected Government, perhaps backed by former dictator Suharto.

The report, entitled "The Estimated Situation Entering 2001", blames the dismal outlook on people giving vent to feelings of injustice that they suffered under Suharto's New Order administration.

"In the era of reform the people perceive a far greater degree of transparency and are making a variety of charges. This has occurred as a result of the injustice, abuses of human rights and a system of law that did not work, especially under the New Order government," the summary quoted the report as saying. It continued: "At the same time, a number of regions wish to secede from the republic, such as Aceh, Irian Jaya and Riau.

A number of disturbances have demonstrated elements of anarchy and violence. Strikes and demonstrations are continuing and there has been a change in behaviour among the people, so that it has become common to see 'street justice' meted out against perpetrators of crime."

Bakin has itself been identified as one of the state bodies that helped Suharto, now 79, maintain his grip on the country for more than 30 years until he was ousted in 1998.

The summary says that Bakin warned ministers of the "latent dangers" of pro-communist infiltrators, a common practice under the New Order regime. It adds that foreign governments and non-governmental agencies may also be active in helping to destabilise the country, pursuing clandestine, pro-communist objectives.

"There is a desire on the part of foreign interests to become involved in a number of cases such as the Malukus," it quotes the report as saying. "There are visible efforts on the part of the Western and developed nations such as the US, the European Union, Canada and Australia to put developing countries, including Indonesia, in the corner, accusing them of not valuing human rights, democracy and the environment, without any attempt to understand the political background, the cultural setting and the economic position of such countries."

To tackle the rash of problems, Bakin advises ministers to manage the promotion of regional autonomy closely, lobby for foreign investment to aid the economy, and step up law enforcement.

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