Tim Dodd – Like the two frayed ends of a rope, the provinces at either end of the 5,000km-long Indonesian archipelago are the weak points which look ready to unravel the country.
They are like two opposite poles which are pulling at Indonesia's fragile unity – Aceh, the Muslim province at the extreme west and Irian Jaya, the mainly Christian province in the extreme east.
But there is also an odd parallel between the two. In the next few days their increasingly powerful independence movements both celebrate the anniversaries of their declarations of independence.
For Irian Jaya it is December 1, the day in 1961 when a handful of hopeful activists declared independence from the Dutch. They were soon disappointed when the Dutch Government, which realised it would not have international backing if it fought Indonesia over the territory, agreed to UN-sponsored negotiations which led to Jakarta taking control in 1963. Indonesia's sovereignty was ratified in a UN-approved "act of free choice" in 1969 when 1,025 carefully selected Papuans endorsed Indonesia's rule.
For Aceh it is December 4, the day in 1976 when the leader of the Free Aceh Movement, Hasan di Tiro, now living in exile in Sweden, declared his territory to be independent of Jakarta's rule.
This year, like last year, the world's press are on alert for conflict if separatists in Irian Jaya and Aceh go ahead with symbolic flag raisings on their respective days. This is particularly so in Irian Jaya, which is getting the lion's share of attention after 38 people died in the highlands town of Wamena two months ago in a conflict sparked by a police attempt to take down the independence movement's Morning Star flag.
The Indonesian army and police are also on alert. Like last year, they plan a show of force to cow the independence movements into keeping displays of separatist feeling to a minimum.
The near conjunction of their symbolic day of independence is not the only parallel between Aceh and Irian Jaya. Both provinces occupy a special place in Indonesia's history as independent nation and underpin the raison d'etre of the nation itself.
Aceh, which was the most rebellious part of the Dutch East Indies empire, was a standard bearer of the struggle for independence from 1945 to 1949 and occupies a special place in the mythology of that period. Irian Jaya, on the other hand, was the one part of the Dutch empire not ceded to Indonesia when the Dutch withdrew in 1949. Right through the 1950s it was an affront to the Indonesian Government's position that it was the liberator and rightful inheritor of all the Dutch territories. When Indonesia finally gained control it was regarded as the completion of the country's independence struggle.
And there is another, more practical reason, why Jakarta wants to keep control of Aceh and Irian Jaya. Both are resource rich and return large chunks of revenue to the central Government each year.
Mobil produces 40 per cent of Indonesia's liquified natural gas in Aceh and Freeport runs the world's richest gold and copper mine in Irian Jaya, which delivered directly to the central Government an average of $US180 million a year in the seven years from 1992 to 1998.
Neither province has ever accepted the Jakarta Government. Aceh has a long history of fighting outside rulers and there is a history of broken promises by Jakarta over autonomy. Irian Jaya has little in common with the rest of Indonesia and the small educated population of native Papuans know they were never given a real choice.
The situation is most serious in Aceh. There, a "humanitarian pause" in the fighting between rebels and the military which has been in place since the middle of the year has proved illusory and both sides appear to be breaking it. Hundreds have been killed during the cease fire.
When it expires on January 15 the Government has warned it will declare a civil emergency if the rebels do not come to the table. That essentially means the military is free to begin serious operations against rebels and the result will be hundreds, if not thousands, of civilian casualties.
The tension in Irian Jaya is also set to worsen. Reuters news agency published a secret internal paper from the Indonesian Ministry of Home Affairs at the weekend which describes its current strategy for opposing the Irian Jayan separatists, and it is eerily reminiscent of East Timor.
It called for establishing village-level militias and turning a local figure into a nationalist hero to oppose the independence movement, which it conceded was growing "more solid than ever". It also called for Indonesia to offer more autonomy and increased development to Irian; this is also similar to East Timor, where the increased generosity failed to win local support.
In Irian Jaya a sizable minority of the estimated 2.6 million people are migrants from other parts of Indonesia and would not support independence. If the situation deteriorates it could easily become a civil war.
But although the situation is fraying in both provinces, the East Timor option of a UN-sponsored referendum on independence is not a possibility. After East Timor, Indonesia will never give another province the option of independence, especially provinces as wealthy as Aceh and Irian Jaya. And neither is there pressure on Jakarta from other countries for the East Timor-style option.
Jakarta says it will offer both provinces a special autonomy deal next year and this looks like the last real chance for a peaceful solution. But the Government will need to show a large degree of flexibility and good will to make it work. The alternative is an increasingly bloody confrontation which will not easily break the ties with Jakarta but which will fray the whole nation.