Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – Pressure is mounting as the Tokyo meeting of international aid donors takes place this month to decide whether to provide Indonesia with US$4.8 billion in fresh aid – or to launch economic sanctions against the country whose militia had killed three United Nations aid workers in Atambua.

The United Nations Security Council has reportedly been horrified at the token efforts by Jakarta to disarm the East Timorese militias responsible for the murders and has called an emergency meeting to discuss the issue.

Jakarta's attempts to convince the world that it is serious about breaking up the militias has hardly been helped by bold accusations directed at the international community from its new Defence Minister, Mr Mohammad Mahfud.

The minister claimed that the recent violence in Atambua was the result of an international conspiracy to prevent the East Timorese from fulfilling their wish to reintegrate with Indonesia. He has pointed a finger at the United States and Australia as being the main culprits.

A State Department spokesman described the claims as an "insult", saying that "in truth, the violence in Timor is being staged from Indonesian territory under the eyes of Indonesian officials".

Yet West Timor is not the only region in Indonesia which is wraught with problems. Violence in the other conflict-torn provinces also threatens to flare up at any time. But Jakarta seems to have put these simmering problems on the backburner.

While the level of sectarian violence in Ambon and North Maluku had been at a low ebb since early July, there has been renewed fighting between Muslims and Christians in Ambon, and violence has also made a comeback in Aceh.

Analysts say that Ambon's recent calm is due more to a lack of Ambonese villages left to fight over rather than to the success of any kind of government policy for the area. Much of the island – apart from a few pockets in Ambon city as well as some villages on the northeast – are under the control of Muslim villagers, aid workers say.

Ambonese Christians allege that elements of the armed forces continue to back attacks against Christian villages, while Muslim groups complain of impartiality on the part of the police. A diplomatic source confirmed that the military, if not actively involved in attacks, had at least stood by and watched while attacks took place.

At least half a million people have fled Maluku for Sulawesi, Java, Nusa Tenggara and even to Holland. But there are no plans or attempts to allow these refugees to return or to settle them elsewhere in the country.

As one diplomat noted, Ambon is set to become another Beirut or Belfast – a long-term conflict with any possibility of reconciliation between the warring sides being light years away.

Yet President Abdurrahman Wahid's right-hand man, Coordinating Minister for Security and Political Affairs Bambang Susilo Yudhoyono, reportedly told a recent Cabinet meeting that Ambon was now under control and that the two sides were talking and preparing for reconciliation.

His only evidence for there being an imminent peace was a report from Muslim leaders – handpicked and brought to Jakarta by a general – that they were ready for reconciliation.

But their handpicked Christian counterparts, brought to Jakarta by the same general, failed to "perform" and instead told the President that the only way to ensure peace in Ambon was to bring in United Nations peacekeepers.

Christian leaders, such as Hendrik Pattinama from Aliansi Maluku, say that they can no longer talk – even to the more moderate Muslims – because now that the Muslims have the upper hand in Ambon, and the fear of international intervention has faded, the Muslims have no reason to talk of peace.

And even though the thousands of refugees fleeing from Ambon and North Maluku have the potential to sow the seeds of conflict elsewhere, there is little sign of government attempts to contain such possible tinderboxes – or even to provide aid for refugees.

Commentators point out that areas flooded with either Christian or Muslim refugees – a development which then tips the balance heavily in favour of one religion – could easily become the site of another conflict. Manado, in North Sulawesi, for instance, has been the favourite destination for Christians fleeing the violence, while thousands of Muslim refugees have made Makassar, in South Sulawesi, their new home.

The government has made more headway perhaps in Aceh, where violence between the armed forces and separatists has killed hundreds over the past year. A three-month ceasefire, which the government has now agreed to extend, appears to have helped reduce the previously-escalating scale of violence.

However, extending the ceasefire, a path strongly opposed by the armed forces, may be the result of international pressure rather than a result of domestic support for the ceasefire. The Indonesian government has been under considerable pressure to try to negotiate with the rebels rather than use force to quell them, particularly after the mysterious killing of a prominent New York-based Acehnese activist in Medan last month.

But the controversial ceasefire – which the army says, with some justification, has allowed separatists to strengthen their position – is only the beginning of a solution for Aceh. The success of the ceasefire hangs on whether Jakarta and the separatist forces are really prepared to engage in talks focusing on a political solution, or whether the recent escalation of violence and intimidation by both sides will continue.

As commentators see it, there are a lot of other measures that Jakarta can use to convince the Acehnese that remaining with Indonesia is a better option than independence.

Body count up and rising

Aceh

• Since the start of the ceasefire in early June, 40 civilians and 21 security force personnel have been killed, according to official figures. But non-government groups say the number of deaths and disappearances is much higher.
• On September 16, respected academic, Dr Safwan Idris, rector of the Ar-Raniry State Institute of Islamic Religion in Banda Aceh, was assassinated.
• On September 19, two student activists with Sira, a group that advocates a referendum on Aceh's political status, were allegedly beaten by security force members and threatened with knives after being seized at gunpoint in Banda Aceh.
• On August 27, three staff of Oxfam working in South Aceh were hospitalised after allegedly being tortured by security force members.

• Several thousand people have been killed in the sectarian conflict and 500,000 refugees have fled the area.
• A civil emergency was imposed in late May, and hundreds of Laskar Jihad members, blamed for the recent violence, were sent back to Java.
• The navy has managed to enforce a loose blockade around the island of Ambon but this has not stopped speedboats from moving groups of fighters from Ambon to outlying areas.
• The latest clash on the island of Sapura, near Ambon, saw villagers from Ambon island attack a Christian village, killing 13 and injuring 27.