Vaudine England – On the surface, Indonesia appears to be spiralling out of control, with the killing of United Nations workers in West Timor 10 days ago, a bomb in central Jakarta three days ago and a presidency assailed by critics both at home and abroad.

But anyone thinking President Abdurrahman Wahid is about to lose his job, or the fractured state of Indonesia is about to fall apart, should think again, say some of Indonesia's top commentators.

"The new cabinet has only just started its job, and it is off to a flying start," publisher and political analyst Aristides Katoppo said. "And it is disturbing that people are trying to disrupt the democratic process. But I think the Government is coping. What else can [Wahid] do? We are dealing with terrorists, and even the mighty United States has them.

"Here it is just forces who do not wish there to be a recovery, or who are trying to disturb the process of reform. Of course, the situation is in a way fragile. But I think there is much more resilience among Indonesians than you think. This won't bring the Government down. Maybe it is more than just a glitch, but I think the country is robust enough to absorb this pinprick," said Mr Katoppo, referring to the bomb which left 15 people dead in the basement of the Jakarta Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

"These things are not adding up to a crisis, these are just symptomatic," Mr Katoppo added. "If you are running a fever, then you may well come out in a few rashes. But I believe the fever is coming down."

In this context, the fever Indonesia is sweating out is the process of changing a political system from the military-backed centralism of former president Suharto to the open, tolerant and reformist democracy which President Wahid and his supportive intelligentsia want to see.

Other Indonesians are less sanguine, with men who helped design the electoral system which achieved an open parliamentary election last June such as Andi Mallarangeng saying the latest outrages threaten the future of democracy in the country.

Political scientist Syamsuddin Haris said at a recent seminar that old habits of bribery and corruption, seen throughout provincial administrations despite some changes in Jakarta, had helped encourage a general desire to see law and order return, even if that had to be under an authoritarian administration.

But contrary to the experience of some of Indonesia's neighbouring countries, there is no talk of a coup d'etat, unless the word "coup" is redefined to mean the long-term, geographically disperse provocation of violence by mysterious armed groups which has been under way here since 1998.

Despite the crisis, Indonesian MPs are reportedly at one another's throats over plans by 90 of them to spend millions of dollars on a 29-country world trip to visit overseas compatriots. The two main parties in the People's Consultative Assembly, the Golkar and the Indonesian Democracy Party of Struggle, were boycotting the jaunt and had urged the 90 not to waste the country's money, the Jakarta Post reported yesterday. A similar trip by a group of MPs to 29 countries earlier this year cost the assembly 25 billion rupiah (HK$7.5 million).