Facing a hostile parliament and a deteriorating national economy, Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid handed over a portion of his duties to Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri on August 9.
The handover represents an unofficial coalition between Wahid, Megawati and the Golkar party – the three largest parties in the parliament. Wahid has bought himself time, but at the expense of increasing the power of his two largest rivals and possibly handicapping his ability to govern. Less than a year after trying to bring some semblance of order to this strategically important archipelago nation, Wahid's presidency is clearly failing.
On August 7, the aging president apologized to the parliament for his poor performance in office. That night, members of six of Indonesia's most powerful political parties held a private meeting to discuss the very real possibility that Wahid should be deposed, according to Kompas, an Indonesian daily. Not only did the parties want Megawati to take a stronger role in the government, they drafted a bill that would have made impeaching Wahid much easier, according to the Straits Times.
Megawati's Indonesian Struggle Party (PDI-P) is the largest in parliament. The Golkar party is second, despite its history as a tool of former president Suharto. Together, they could have mustered the votes to kick Wahid out of office. But doing so would have placed them atop a heap of smaller, squabbling parties, and equally fractious factions within their own parties – and all this with only the thinnest of majorities.
But the impeachment bill was overturned, and Wahid retains some measure of his power, likely due to a last-minute appeal by Matori Djalil, the chairman of Wahid's own party. PDI-P and Golkar dropped their overt hostility to Wahid, and have distanced themselves from the other political parties that continued to bash Wahid.
Rather than attempting to bludgeon their way through the political chaos of a post-Wahid government, PDI-P and Golkar have chosen to join Wahid's administration. Besides the promise of greater power for the vice president, Wahid is expected to reshuffle his Cabinet next week. Both parties stand to gain a large number of positions as the president consolidates his advisory group.
Wahid has dodged a bullet and altered the dynamics of Indonesian politics. Most political commentators are clamoring about Megawati's new duties – she is charged with vague jobs like executing daily technical task of government and establishing the focus of the government.
However, it is not evident that Megawati's job description will lead to greater order. Wahid gave Megawati a number of tasks at the start of the year – including resolving violence in the Molucca Islands and separatist movements in Irian Jaya – yet Megawati stayed in the political hinterlands.
Backroom negotiations between PDI-P, Golkar and the Wahid government have now burst into the open, as Wahid and Megawati have begun squabbling about the distribution of power.
In bringing the opposition into the heart of his administration, the president has brought his most dangerous rivals closer to home. Until now, Wahid was master of his administration, but clashed with the parliament at every turn; his own party isn't large enough to push an agenda. This new coalition holds more than two-thirds of the parliament – enough to dominate any opposition – but is divided within itself. This is not necessarily any worse for Wahid, and may in fact be better. He is known for his ability to work one-on-one with individuals and elites.
Wahid now only has to worry about a few dozen Cabinet and party officials, rather than several hundred parliamentarians. But this may still be dangerous. Wahid could find his own authority blocked or diverted if the current power struggles with PDI-P continue into the coming months.
The only remaining power base is the military, which appears to be satisfied with the way events are unfolding. The government will stay stable and has pledged not to stay tough on rebellious provinces – the military's prime concern. The army just sent additional troops to the Moluccas and is suspected in the disappearance of a leader of the Aceh separatist movement. Even more appealing for the military are the rumors that Golkar and PDI-P will allow officers to keep seats in the parliament until the 2004 elections – if not longer.
Wahid gave away a slice of his power to keep his office and to gain control over the parliament. He has rid himself of one evil but gained another. This strengthens him in the short term. But the president has also boosted the power and visibility of his strongest competitors, setting the stage for a future challenge.