Tim Dodd, Jakarta – Indonesia's President Abdurrahman Wahid is a politician who thrives on chaos. Remember how he disposed of General Wiranto early this year.
He contradicted himself, created red herrings and laid false trails in two weeks of shadow boxing with Wiranto which made headlines around the world. Finally, Wahid said the general could stay. Then, when Wiranto thought himself safe, he sacked him.
The confusion is part of the Wahid style which gets opponents off balance long enough to topple them. Now chaos promises to rule again and this time it may be beyond even Wahid's ability to rescue something from the confusion.
In secret negotiations in a Jakarta hotel on Monday night six parties representing an overwhelming majority of the People's Consultative Assembly agreed to try to turn Wahid into a figurehead President. They want him to function as the Head of State while Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will be take over as the head of government, in effect as prime minister.
If the threat is carried through Wahid will have little choice. The assembly is the body which elected him and which has the power to sack him. And among its members there is a wave of dissatisfaction with his presidency and a determination that his powers should be curtailed. This ultimatum to Wahid follows the failure of a rearguard action to defend his power.
In recent weeks Wahid let it be known that he would appoint a first minister, or prime minister, to run day-to-day affairs at the head of a new Cabinet. Two names were canvassed, both Wahid allies – the Mines and Energy Minister, former General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the State Secretary, Marsilam Simanjuntak.
But neither was embraced by the numerous factions in the assembly. In particular Megawati, according to her supporters, saw the Wahid plan as a challenge to her authority. Earlier this year Wahid promised that Megawati would act as a prime minister but the promise was not fulfilled and she was unwilling to see the task go to someone else.
It is a measure of the dissatisfaction with Wahid that every major political party, except his own National Awakening Party, has backed the plan to put the real political power in the hands of Megawati. Even the Muslim parties, which blocked Megawati from becoming president last October, are behind it.
Can it possibly work in practice? Megawati has never impressed with her political skills and it is impossible to imagine her running any more effective a government than Wahid has.
And unless Wahid genuinely co-operates with this ultimatum, which is very unlikely, the only way to make the Government work smoothly will be to hold another meeting of the assembly, a so-called "special session", to sack him. Or it could pass major amendments to the Constitution to formalise the new arrangement permanently by emasculating the powers of the presidency.
It is still possible the demand from the six parties is just a bargaining ploy to force Wahid to accept more minor concessions, and will not be seen through to its conclusion. If the parties are serious, they also risk provoking major rioting in Jakarta when thousands of members of the Banser, the paramilitary force which supports Wahid, rally to him.
Signs of a rift between Wahid and Megawati, long time friends who were once close political allies, have been evident recently. Reliable reports say that Megawati refused to read Wahid's speech to the assembly on Monday. Because of Wahid's blindness, Megawati customarily reads his important speeches. But in this case she declined, saying she was unhappy with the content. She was also absent from Wahid's 60th birthday party last Friday.
Last week Wahid was scrambling to shore up his support and courted Lieutenant-General Agus Widjojo, a key army figure who is close to Megawati. He gave General Widjojo a boost by sacking his main rival, Lieutenant-General Agus Wirahadikusumah, from his post as the head of Kostrad, the army's reserve.
General Wirahadikusumah, the military's strongest reform voice who had revealed a $33 million army corruption scandal, was sent to a non-job even though he was previously a strong Wahid ally. And General Widjojo joined Wahid's team which was writing the speech he gave to Parliament on Monday.
In the event, nothing headed off the ultimatum delivered yesterday. If it is carried through, Indonesia is in for more political chaos.
Last year, before Wahid was elected President in October, his younger brother and political fix-it man Hasyim Wahid told one political observer that any government which had his brother and Megawati in the top two jobs would be the most kacau (chaotic) ever seen. He was right in a way that he may not have foreseen.