Tom Wright, Jakarta – Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid will likely survive a grilling by the nation's highest legislative body next week, but he will need to make major changes to his leadership style to avoid impeachment later this year, analysts say.
The 60-year-old leader will sum up in a speech Monday his first ten months in government to the 700-member People's Consultative Assembly, or MPR, the body that elected him to power last year.
Wahid will use the speech at the MPR's annual meeting as a platform to defend his tumultuous administration against a myriad of criticism from politicians enjoying democracy for the first time after 32 years of iron rule under former dictator Suharto. The fractious 500-member parliament, all of whom sit on the MPR, complain that Wahid regularly contradicts his own policies, and has failed to set the economy on a clear recovery path.
While the parliament remains too divided to offer a strong alternative president, Wahid must use the assembly session next week to consolidate support among his coalition partners, analysts say.
A repeat of last month's parliament appearance – where Wahid bluntly told coalition partners they had no constitutional right to question his firing of two ministers – will only push more politicians toward the opposition.
"He would be very stupid to repeat that," said Salim Said, a senior lecturer in the faculty of social and political sciences at Universitas Indonesia. "It would be the beginning of the end for him," he added.
PDI-P backs Gus Dur
Wahid, known as Gus Dur to most Indonesians, needs to build on encouraging signals in recent days that a major coalition ally, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, is still willing to back his presidency, analysts say.
Relations between Wahid and Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who heads the PDI-P, have deteriorated after his sacking in April of a senior PDI-P member from his cabinet, and his refusal to discuss the matter with lawmakers. However PDI-P, the largest party in parliament with a third of the seats, still doesn't feel ready to challenge Wahid's government, analysts say.
Importantly, Heri Akhmadi, chairman of the PDI-P's MPR faction, told the Jakarta Post Friday the party was opposed to draft legislation aimed at making it easier for the assembly to impeach Wahid. The Jakarta Post quoted the PDI-P's Heri as saying the MPR should allow Wahid to serve his full term until 2004. Currently, the MPR elects the president for a five year term.
Lawmakers can only begin an impeachment process by proving he has broken the constitution, after which they call a special assembly session at which the president must give an accountability speech.
The new legislation, which is set to go before the MPR for a vote during its August 7 to August 18 meeting, will allow the assembly to call a special session without such proof. A number of politicians, including MPR speaker Amien Rais, want to push the legislation through to give the assembly more power to oust Wahid if he doesn't improve his performance in the coming months.
New cabinet crucial
Even if the MPR doesn't pass the new legislation, which many claim is unconstitutional, opposition politicians can still stir up trouble for Wahid in parliament when it reconvenes at the end of August. The parliament has the right to call a special session of the MPR if it can prove the president is involved in corruption.
Currently, opposition politicians claim Wahid is involved in scandals involving misuse of funds from Brunei's sultan, and the national food logistics agency, although details of the corruption allegations remain sketchy. In such a climate, Wahid must use the MPR meeting and the following weeks to build on his support in parliament to withstand the attacks, analysts say.
A cabinet reshuffle, giving a large number of seats to PDI-P, rather than his own political appointees, would be a good start, they add. "That would be a signal to everyone in the country that Gus Dur is really trying to lead the country," said Salim from Universitas Indonesia.
The cabinet reshuffle may also lead to the appointment of Mines and Energy Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the new position of First Minister, people close to the president say. The idea of a first minister, which existed in Indonesia between 1959 and 1963 under former president Sukarno, is to bring some cohesion over the cabinet, and speed up decision making, they say. Yudhoyono, a former general who is trusted by Wahid, may also be able to mediate between the president and Megawati.
Such a reshuffle could involve pushing some current coalition members, including Rais' National Mandate Party, out of the cabinet. Finance Minister Bambang Sudibyo is one of Rais' appointees in the present cabinet.