John McBeth, Jakarta – The sight of an elected president defying members of parliament who helped put him in office is hardly an advertisement for democracy. By refusing to answer MPs' questions as to why he fired two cabinet members, Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has thrown down a gauntlet to MPs ahead of a crucial session next month of the People's Consultative Assembly, or MPR.
While Wahid is expected to survive that session, there are other threats to his presidency that could bring him down by the end of the year unless he dramatically improves his relations with parliament.
Despite the current anger among MPs, the MPR session at which Wahid will appear in mid-August does not currently have the power to censure him. But a decree being prepared by the assembly's working committee could change that, making it possible for the MPR to convene a special session that could move against the president. Wahid could also be threatened by lower-house moves to investigate alleged financial irregularities involving the presidential palace. Should Wahid remain defensive, the hearings could trigger formal proceedings to hold him accountable, again at a special session of the 700-strong MPR.
The danger for Wahid is that a special session would compel him to deliver an accountability speech, the rejection of which would amount to a vote of no-confidence from the assembly and make his presidency virtually untenable. It was just such a vote that forced Wahid's predecessor, B.J. Habibie, to withdraw his candidacy in last October's presidential race.
The numbers are already stacked against Wahid. A majority of the 500-strong House of Representatives, parliament's lower house, supported calls that he explain his abrupt dismissal in April of State Enterprise Minister Laksamana Sukardi and Trade and Industry Minister Jusuf Kalla.
In his July 20 appearance before the house, Wahid called the removals a "political decision." But he refused to explain them, and instead challenged the constitutionality of the proceedings. Wahid later apologized for this brush-off and offered to say more in a closed session with MPs. But a further majority rejected his explanation, sustaining the mood of confrontation ahead of the August 7-18 MPR session, where Wahid will be required to make a progress report on his 10 months in office.
Similar moves could attend the lower-house inquiry into the diversion of 35 billion rupiah ($3.9 million) from Bulog, the national food-logistics agency, and the palace's handling of a $2 million donation from the sultan of Brunei, ostensibly for Aceh relief operations. If the house decides the president has violated state guidelines on eradicating corruption, it can issue him with a warning, followed three months later by a second one if the first is not heeded. A month after that, the house can convene a special MPR session.
Political leaders insist they are not out for Wahid's blood – at least not yet. At a recent meeting of his party's central executive board, MPR chairman and National Mandate Party leader Amien Rais, one of Wahid's bitterest rivals, noted that public opinion still didn't favour sacking the president. Although no-one will say so publicly, there are fears that if Wahid is forced to quit, members of Nahdlatul Ulama, the 35-million-strong Muslim organization that he headed for 15 years, will revolt and cause unrest in Java.
Politicians say this is Wahid's last chance. "The message is,'You'd better watch out,'" says Bara Hasibuan, deputy secretary-general of the National Mandate Party. "All we want," adds house Vice-Speaker Tosari Widjaj, "is for the president to get back on track. But if he can't, then the nation is paying too high a price."
If Wahid were ultimately toppled, Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri would probably assume the presidency, with Akbar Tanjung, the colourless but politically shrewd house speaker and Golkar Party leader, taking over as vice-president. That's the line-up most analysts had expected from last October's election, before the political engineers got together and decided the near-blind Wahid would make a more acceptable president.
What a difference nine months makes. Wahid was chosen because Muslims weren't comfortable with Megawati, whose Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle, or PDI-P, won the highest number of votes in last year's elections. Now, according to senior PDI-P parliamentary official Herry Achmadi, even some of the more radical Muslim leaders have become so exasperated with Wahid that they are telling the PDI-P they can live with Megawati after all.
Wahid's removal of the two ministers and the more recent detention of central-bank governor Syahril Sabirin are seen as nakedly political acts aimed at paving the way for the president's own appointees. Indeed, his sacking of the principled Sukardi, a close aide of Megawati, has led to Wahid's estrangement from his vice-president.
Then there's the alleged misuse of Bulog funds, the Brunei "donation" – which Acehnese officials say they have never seen – and more-recent published reports hinting at a shady sugar deal involving some of Wahid's closest associates. Politicians say parliament also has documents pointing to irregularities in the spending of the president's discretionary fund, a pool of money earmarked exclusively for rural projects.
Wahid has been in increasing trouble as well for unguarded remarks. In a statement he later sought to deny, he told a forum in Bali in early July that he had approved the arrest of several unidentified legislators who he claimed had been stirring religious strife in the Moluccas. Days earlier he had informed a group of visiting American editors that "thousands" of his political foes would be arrested in Jakarta on July 15 for inciting unrest.
For a man who just months ago was seen as a champion of democratic rule, Wahid appears increasingly at risk of suffering the fate of his predecessor, Habibie, though his attorney-general, Marzuki Darusman, says that "if he goes down, then it will be because of the economy, not politics. Darusman feels the president is still in search of a formula by which to govern. Indeed, Wahid has told friends he knows he's doing things wrongly. But as his July 20 appearance in parliament showed, tempering his idiosyncratic behaviour may be a daunting task.
Adds a veteran politician, now trying to coach the president in better ways of governance: "He's like a cork in a bottle – he's not intrinsically valuable, but the environment demands that he be there."