Hestiana Dharmastuti/BI & Lyndal Meehan, Jakarta – Megawati Sukarnoputri seems to be facilitating 'consensus' and playing her largely ceremonial role of Vice President to the hilt in recent weeks. From closing Muhammadiyah's Grand Assembly, to opening the Golkar Party's Leader's Forum and instructing her party not to disrupt the President's appearance before the House tomorrow, Mega seems to be seems to be consolidating the political elite-but for whose benefit?
Mega's appearance at the opening of the Golkar Party's Leader's Forum held at the Jakarta Convention Center yesterday, was greeted with cheers by the hundreds of Golkar supporters gathered for the ceremony. She joined Akbar Tandjung, Party leader and Speaker of the House, and numerous Golkar members and political leaders including Attorney General Marzuki Darusman, Arifin Panigoro, Jusuf Kalla, Sutardjo Soejoguritno, AA Baramuli, Theo Sambuaga, Harmoko, Haryanto Dhanutirto and Wardiman Djojonegoro.
The Forum will run until 21 July and will no doubt be assessing the party's current and future political strategies as it faces mounting allegations of corruption during the New Order regime of former President Suharto when Golkar dominated Indonesian politics.
Mega indeed seemed vastly more popular than party leader, Akbar Tanjung, who's negative comments on President Abdurrahman Wahid precipitated a storm of criticism, even from within his own party, most notably from the Attorney General.
Megawati's popularity with the voters was witnessed in the response her PDI-P received at last year's election where it collected the largest portion of the vote (37.4%) and 185 of the 700 odd seats in the People's Consultative Assembly. Her popularity at elite functions, however, is tied to the fact that, according to the Constitution, she will take over from a physically incapacitated President and because she is the likely successor should a significant movement develop within the House and Assembly to dislodge Wahid.
In recent weeks, the President has come under increasing criticism for his sometimes erratic leadership style and failure to solve such pressing issues as the worsening economic situation and communal unrest which many fear will lead to the 'Balkanisation' of Indonesia.
Besides Golkar, the second largest faction in the House and Assembly, other significant political power brokers do indeed seem to be falling in behind Megawati. Her appearance at the closing ceremony of the 44th Muhammadiyah Grand Assembly on 10 July also made headlines primarily because the organisation, which boasts some 28 million members and a political wing in the National Mandate Party (PAN), appeared to give their blessing to her presidency.
"Most of the Muhammadiyah leaders will give Megawati a chance to take the presidency because it is safer," Dawam Rahardjo of PAN told The Indonesian Observer at the Assembly. Earlier this week also, Amien Rais, who as leader of PAN had been instrumental in Wahid's election, described the August session of the full parliament as a 'turning point' when Wahid's fate would be revealed. "Whether he falls or not," said the mercurial Rais.
It is important to remember, however, that the President still appears to enjoy general support from the public despite his failings and that a general sigh of relief ushered from the international business community when Wahid got the top job over the politically inexperienced Megawati and her policy-devoid PDI-P last October.
What both the domestic population and international parties like to see is consensus ... and action. When Wahid, Akbar and Megawati met in mid April, the markets picked up. When the meeting scheduled between the three as well as Amien Rais fizzled on 12 July, the rupiah spiraled to below levels witnessed during the Habibie presidency. The rupiah picked up today to around Rp 9,100/US$ on more positive sentiment.
The question is, what is there to be positive about if political power brokers are attempting to turn the General Session of the Parliament into a Special Session in which the President is ousted and a new political equilibrium brokered amid massive social turmoil?
In all this, the 'sphinx-like' silence of Megawati prevails leaving the Indonesian public and international observers to wonder if her political ambitions indeed stretch to the Presidency in the immediate future.
Once known as a close ally of President Wahid, Megawati's PDI-P was the driving force behind the interpellation motion which has forced Wahid to appear before the House tomorrow and officicially account for the sackings of two Ministers. Admitedly, PDI-P leader Laksamana Sukardi, as well as Golkar's Yusuf Kalla, were ejected from key economic portfolios in April without clear cause.
Interestingly, she has instructed PDI-P members to refrain from interjecting or "turning the session into a kindergarten or zoo", said Deputy PDI-P Secretary General Pramono Anung, to Detik tonight.
While Megawati may appear to be pursuing her political ambitions through 'doing the rounds' of elite gatherings and building her support, the consensus she is brokering may ultimately have a positive influence on the stability of Wahid's presidency if she intends to bide her time, 'learn a few tricks of the trade' and build consensus for the cabinet reshuffle which will almost certainly take place after the parliamentary session if Wahid remains.
Tomorrow's events will have a major impact on the development of the leadership issue. If Wahid does not appear, and it is still not clear that he will personally deliver his response to the House, the House will almost certainly move to call him again and even impeach him after the third attempt. This could force Mega into a position she may well wish to avoid in the near future.