London – Slowly but surely, and away from the prying of television cameras, Indonesia is starting to fall apart. Doomsayers have been predicting the 'Balkanisation' of the country ever since East Timor managed to wrest itself free of the central government's grasp in October last year. That prompted an upsurge of separatist activity in the oil rich province of Aceh, and also Irian Jaya, which has now been renamed West Papua, and was complemented by rising tensions between Muslims and Christians in the Moluccas. Matters were complicated by the efforts by the country's ageing and half blind president, Aburrahman Wahid, who is known affectionately within Indonesia as Gus Dur, to deal with the problem. These were frustrated by a power struggle with the country's powerful armed forces. Wahid's occasionally erratic style did not help.
What hopes are there for Indonesia? Foreign Report makes a prediction. At the start of the year, there were some signs that the violent and volatile situation was improving. Wahid managed to sideline those in the armed forces such as the former chief, General Wiranto, who were believed to working against him. In May a cease-fire between government forces and separatists in the province of Aceh.
Tensions between Christians and Muslims in the Moluccas tailed off. The battered economy seemed to be picking itself off the floor. It seemed hopeful. But it was a false dawn.
In the Moluccas, according to the British Foreign Office, clashes between the two communities started again at the end of April on the island of Ambon. Since then over 100 people are thought to have been killed in Halmahera. Foreign Report has been told that the renewed violence is the result of the arrival of members of the Laskar Jihad, a Muslim extremist group, in the province. The local police have sided with the Christians and the army with the Muslims. The local government has declared a state of civil emergency. Some 1,400 soldiers in Ambon are being withdrawn and a Hindu has been put in charge of the rest. The situation remains explosive. Support for separatism in Irian Jaya (West Papua) is spreading so quickly , that large numbers of non-Papuans have started to flee the province.
Restless generals
There are growing signs that, for all Wahid's efforts, the armed forces are becoming restless. On June 13, the armed forces chief, Admiral Widodo Adisucipto, a Wahid appointee, stated that the country was sliding into chaos and that the government's first concern was to prevent the nation's disintegration.
Other senior officers have started to express their frustration at Wahid's failure to deal with the country's economic problems, and the social, religious and ethnic tensions that are tearing the country apart. One of them, Lieut-General Agus Widjujug, spoke of the "failure of democracy" in Pakistan which had justified the military coup there. In recent weeks several pro-Wahid senior officers have been moved from key posts and at the same time Foreign Report has been told that former President Suharto's disgraced son-in-law, General Prabowo Subianto, has returned to Indonesia after a period of self imposed exile in Jordan. His re-appearance in the country has revived speculation of an alliance of generals, Muslim extremists and disgruntled members of the Suharto clan trying to destabilise the country and undermine Wahid.
Not yet, but watch out
However, the common view at the moment is that a military coup is not on the cards. Those elements of the army who are unhappy with Wahid know that they would face serious domestic and international condemnation if they toppled him, and have desisted from doing so. But, as the situation in Indonesia deteriorates, Wahid is starting to look ever more impotent while the generals take a closer look at Pakistan, where the successful coup plotters have shrugged off domestic and international condemnation.
Our prediction: If the situation continues to deteriorate, do not be surprised by a coup later this year.