Lindsay Murdoch, Jakarta – A group led by a former Australian foreign minister, Mr Gareth Evans, has warned of the possibility of a coup in the long-term in Indonesia if its enfeebled government fails to meet popular expectations.

The International Crisis Group, based in in Brussels, says that while Indonesia's crisis is chronic rather than acute, Jakarta has not shown the way forward in solving serious political, regional, communal, legal and economic problems and challenges. The group says that although many elements of the military resent the criticisms and sacrifices that accompany its decline in political influence, "there is no possibility of a coup in the present circumstances".

But it says the military, which under former president Soeharto dominated almost every aspect of Indonesian society for 32 years, is divided over its new position and has no strategy to reassert itself.

"The elected [AbdurrahmanWahid] Government continues to enjoy wide legitimacy, which means that any attempt by the military to return to power would almost certainly be met with strong popular opposition," the group says in the first of a series of reports on the country.

"Military officers are aware of the consequences of spiralling disorder on attempts to attract investment in order to revive the economy. And they know that the international reaction to a coup would be extremely negative ... However, in the longer run, circumstances could change, especially if civilian government fails to meet popular expectations. The real test will come later if the civilian government fails to entrench its authority and loses it legitimacy."

The International Crisis Group comprises former national leaders, government officials, corporate executives and civic and humanitarian activists. It rejects international press speculation about the possible "Balkanisation" of Indonesia, pointing out that only two provinces, Aceh and Papua, have separatist movements that could conceivably succeed.

These provinces have a combined population of only 6.4million in a country of 220 million. The group says that unlike the Soeharto government, which had relied heavily on repression, the new government has emphasised the need for dialogue and a political approach in both provinces and hopes to reach compromises on the basis of extensive and special autonomy.

The group recommends that other countries restore the military co-operation with Indonesia that was cut over military-sponsored violence in East Timor last year, but says this should be confined to areas relating primarily to national defence until forces involved in internal security duties have been thoroughly reformed.