Lesley McCulloch, Jakarta – It seems that with each day that passes criticism of Indonesia's President, Abdurrahman Wahid, gains momentum. No-one denies that many things are certainly different than they were 12 months ago – and that these changes have been for the better – but are they the changes that really matter?
Initial praise for the President's 'bravery' in ousting key players in government who were seen to be potential 'roadblocks' to reform – such as former General Wiranto – has been waning in recent weeks. Gus Dur (as he is affectionately called) appears to be losing his embryonic and tenuous grip on two very important aspects of the reform agenda: the military and the economy.
Many people don't seem to understand that the two are inextricably linked. Military reform involves more than simply replacing key individuals with reformists. The President needs to adopt an institutional approach to reform rather than an individual one.
Indeed this may be beginning to happen with the recent announcement that plans are afoot to reform the military at the territorial and village level – although whether this will have any impact on 'rogue' elements of the military who are accused of 'non-government sanctioned' behaviour in such outlying places as Aceh, Ambon and the Moluccas is doubtful.
Add to this government-approved police and military action, such as the policy to 'shoot on sight' non-military elements carrying weapons on the legendary Spice Islands (the Moluccas), and the situation has all the ingredients for escalating violence which could very well spiral out of control. It can safely be assumed that such a policy following so closely on the East Timor fiasco has been sanctioned at the behest of the military.
Recent reports of military and police personnel fatally wounding 'innocent bystanders' has led to a barrage of protest by international human-rights organisations and others. It remains to be seen whether the recently signed cease fire agreement on Aceh between the Government and the separatist rebels, due to come into effect on June 2, is sustainable. The link, often overlooked, is the role that the still powerful military has in the economy.
The fact that the Indonesian military is involved in business activities is no secret. Business down the barrel of a gun is as old as Indonesia itself. It has been, and continues to be, extremely lucrative both for the armed forces as an institution and for some well-placed individuals. The military initially became involved in commercial activities because the government could not afford to provide for their welfare and running costs.
Since Gus Dur became President there has been little change. Regular salaries do not adequately provide for the basic needs of personnel. With prices spiraling, recent salary increases of on average 30 per cent have made little difference.
Powerful interests are at stake. While an inadequate defence budget remains the official rational for such 'unorthodox' military activities, powerful vested interests are at stake. Perhaps none more so than the very existence of the Government itself.
In recognition of the need for a delicate balancing act Gus Dur has warned against 'anti-TNI' sentiment. When Defence Minister Juwono Sudarson late last year requested a 62.9 per cent rise in this year's defence budget, there were few who thought the Government, already financially strained, would comply.
However, it seemed reasonable to expect some increase as a sign of commitment to 'cleaning up' the corruption which surrounds the business activities of the armed forces. No rise was forthcoming. The defence budget for the current financial year, which extends for only nine months, stands at RP10.1 trillion (about $A2.2 billion) – a pro-rated version of the 1999 budget.
The Government has said it must continue to accept the military's commercial activities, both as a method of individual personnel topping-up inadequate salaries and to boost the coffers of the budget. The implicit acceptance by the Government that there is a 'leakage' of resources to already-wealthy individuals is disconcerting. The amounts involved in such 'unconventional' activities are as much a mystery to the Indonesian Government as to observers.
As the country continues to languish in the aftermath of the economic crisis and the recent fall in the rupiah of 10 per cent in as many days keeps foreign investors away, reliance on these extra-budgetary sources of military funding may become even more vital. An increase in the defence budget must be forthcoming if military development plans are to be fulfilled.
Recent reports that one-third of all maritime piracy attacks in the first three months of this year took place in the busy straits around Indonesia have led Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Achmad Sutjipto to request the creation of a coast guard that would focus on piracy and smuggling.
The President must not push the military offside. In many ways it is the only truly functioning government institution and seen to be the only hope of maintaining some semblance of order in the trouble spots of the vast archipelago. While measures toward reform continue apace, one must not lose sight of the fact that it is 'selective reform' and that until fully functioning institutional change has been engaged, the military's role in the economy will remain. The road to such far-reaching reform is fraught with danger and is a very long road indeed.
[Lesley McCulloch is a Visiting Fellow at the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University and a researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conversion, (www.bicc.de) which promotes processes that shift resources away from the defence sector towards alternative civilian uses.]