Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – Even as Indonesia's landmark ceasefire accord with separatist Acehnese rebels was being hailed yesterday, analysts warned that the pact could be easily sabotaged by rogue elements who do not want to see an end to the 24-year conflict.
They say that unless the accord is tightly monitored, provocateurs who for the last year have conducted random killings, bombings and burnings, could gain the upper hand and destroy the ceasefire.
"The agreement is a good opportunity for other rogue elements to show that the President can't solve the problem. If they don't want the president to succeed they can use it to embarrass him," one military analyst predicted.
Both President Abdurrahman Wahid and Human Rights Minister Hasballah M. Said have blamed the violence on either enlisted members of the Indonesian armed forces or deserters who are possibly backed by groups in Jakarta.
Casting doubt on whether even a committed police force can stop such rogue violence, non-government groups pointed to the recent spate of bombings in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh, which has continued despite a heavy security presence.
They say the provocateurs are elements in the military who do not want the current trial of soldiers, accused of massacring civilians, to continue. Other western analysts say that some of the rogue elements are criminal gangs who instigate the violence for their own business ends.
And despite public guarantees from armed forces (TNI) commander Admiral Widodo that he supported the accord, an analyst said he doubted that all factions of Indonesia's "fragmented" military would support the agreement – even if they have no connection to the rogue elements.
"By signing this agreement the President dramatically shows his distrust of the military. It is clear proof that he is willing to venture into unchartered waters and turn to the international community rather trust TNI," the analyst said.
He added that that while publicly supporting the agreement, privately, the military were very concerned that the accord gave de facto recognition to the rebels as representatives of the Acehnese people. They felt that this would open the door for the rebels to gain international recognition.
Mr Abdurrahman has tried to squash such criticism by referring to the agreement a "humanitarian pause not a ceasefire" because he said the term ceasefire implied equal status to both parties.
But his attempts to satisfy his critics has created distrust among those in the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). Rebel spokesman Ismail Sahputra said that by insisting it was not a ceasefire, Mr Abdurrahman was backing away from the spirit of the agreement.
"We don't believe it can work because Gus Dur says it one way before it is announced and them says it is like this. A ceasefire and stopping human rights violations have to go together," he said, adding that he doubted the government could control all its troops.
Another analyst Salim Said asked whether the breakaway Malaysian-based faction of the separatist rebels would try to sabotage the agreement. "How about the other GAM? If you are the other GAM that is not represented by Hasan di Tiro, you could create trouble," said analyst Salim Said.
While analysts and non-government groups have hailed the government for taking the landmark step of trying to open up negotiations with the rebels, the move has also attracted much flak from Jakarta-based politicians.
"There is a feeling of concern among politicians that what the President is doing is leading us to second Timor fiasco. They are really afraid that by bringing it to an international level we will open a Pandora's Box and encourage another disappointed region to go internationally to address the problem," Mr Salim said, referring Irian Jaya's growing independence movement.
Former president Habibie's agreement to hold a referendum last year in East Timor contributed to his failure to be endorsed as presidential candidate for the Golkar party.