Diarmid O'Sullivan, Lhokseumawe – A brutal crackdown by the Indonesian security forces in the province of Aceh is smothering the separatist movement, local people and observers say. They believe it could compel the Acehnese to accept a compromise peace with Jakarta.

An upsurge of pro-independence activity in Aceh, following East Timor's independence vote last August, fuelled fears that Indonesia could be torn apart by regional rebellions and, in turn, destabilise the region. But the crackdown, which began in January and has claimed between 200 and 300 lives at least, has driven both Aceh's guerrillas and its non-violent activists into retreat.

The conflict is less of a war than a murder spree. Actual battles are few. People vanish and turn up dead in isolated spots with marks of torture on their bodies. The army blames the guerrillas, who are not universally liked in Aceh, but it seems likely that most were killed by the military.

Fear of the army has emptied the village of Simpang Kramat near the northern coast, where the creation of a new military post 10 days ago led local people to flee en masse. Indonesian flags flutter outside boarded-up shops and farm animals wander on the main street. Nurdin, one of hundreds of villagers now camping out in a local college, said: "If the army really protected the people, we wouldn't be here."

Only three months ago, it was hard to find an Acehnese who did not insist that independence was the only solution to decades of misrule by Jakarta. Now, constant fear and uncertainty make some say they only want peace. A veteran activist in the oil town of Lhokseumawe, whose adopted brother went missing near a police post last November, said he had not considered himself Indonesian since 1978.

But he added: "I think most people would accept political autonomy [within Indonesia]." Some Acehnese are now realising that the rest of the world regards their province as an integral part of Indonesia and will not force Jakarta to grant a ballot on independence like that in East Timor.

The government of reformist President Abdurrahman Wahid has effectively given the army a free hand in Aceh, but knows that the grievances of the province cannot be solved by repression.

Mr Wahid's efforts at winning over the Acehnese are moving slowly forward. The first, long-delayed legal trial of soldiers for past atrocities is set for next month. A forthcoming autonomy law would give Aceh control of the bulk of its domestic revenues.

If Mr Wahid can deliver what he promises and the military now stops acting like an army of occupation, then a lasting peace could become possible. If not, the cycle of uprising and repression in Aceh will go on.