Geoffrey Barker – Few, if any, Indonesian military chiefs and their militia proxies are likely to be tried, convicted and jailed for atrocities committed in East Timor before and since the August 30 independence ballot.
The most they are likely to suffer is the international embarrassment of being identified and having the evidence of their crimes published by an ad hoc tribunal that will be set up within days by the UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva.
Despite the orgy of murder, torture, rape, forced deportations and property destruction planned and presided over by some of Indonesia's top generals, Australian academic and legal experts agree that Indonesia is unlikely to hand over any senior leaders to an international tribunal, regardless of the evidence.
Dr Harold Crouch, of the Australian National University, said this week he would not be optimistic that any incoming Indonesian government would allow senior soldiers to be put on trial.
"They will be back in Indonesia, and the political reality is that the military is still a very important force," he said. Associate Professor Hugh Smith of the Australian Defence Force Academy said many senior Indonesian military figures would be anxious about their positions but it would be too much to expect the Indonesian Government to hand over military personnel for trial.
He said the Indonesian military might try to cleanse itself by picking a few scapegoats and dealing with them through Indonesian channels. "Justice then might be partly done and that's probably better than nothing," he said.
Calls for an international inquiry into Indonesian military-militia atrocities in East Timor have been led by the UN Commissioner for Human Rights, Ms Mary Robinson, who has reported to the UN Security Council that there was "overwhelming evidence that East Timor has seen a deliberate, vicious and systematic campaign of gross violation of human rights".
A major effort to collect evidence in Australia is being co-ordinated by the Australian Section of the International Commission of Jurists.
The NSW Director of Public Prosecutions, Mr Nick Cowdery QC, is head of a committee of several hundred volunteer Australian lawyers who are about to start interviewing East Timorese refugees in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia.
Mr Cowdery said yesterday he was not optimistic that Indonesia would voluntarily surrender people identified by the evidence. "My aim is to have the international community take action to demonstrate that people cannot act with impunity," he said.
"Whether anybody is actually punished is beside the point. Administrations have to be shown that if they engage in this sort of conduct they will be held accountable in the court of public opinion.
"It would be better if guilty people were tried, convicted and punished but it is almost as important that there be public international disclosure of the facts." Mr Cowdery said it was ridiculous to expect any Indonesian commission of inquiry to deal with the East Timor atrocities.
He said training of the volunteer lawyers in evidence-taking would start tomorrow, with interviews with refugees to starts within a fortnight.
Many refugees in Australia were able to give evidence of Indonesian military involvement in the atrocities but it was too early to say how far up the chain of military command it would be possible to pin responsibility, he said.
Dr Crouch said the violence in East Timor was part of the military's considered East Timor policy directed by the Defence Minister and Army Chief, General Wiranto.