Peter Cole-Adams – Hundreds of Australians may be involved in monitoring, administrative support and policing in East Timor within months as part of a United Nations-sponsored international effort.

The Foreign Affairs Minister, Mr Downer, said last night an international confidence-building and administrative presence would be necessary in the territory "from an early stage". This would ensure its smooth transition to either independence or autonomy within Indonesia and would undoubtedly involve Australians.

If the East Timorese chose independence – and President B.J. Habibie wanted them to make their decision either way before the June 7 Indonesian elections – some international police presence would probably be needed alongside the East Timorese police.

Mr Downer did not say how many Australians were likely to be involved in the international effort, but a spokesman said current thinking envisaged hundreds rather than thousands. Nor did the minister say whether any of the Australian contingent would be armed for self-defence, or just what "confidence-building" would involve.

"It is necessary now to prevent bloodshed," he said, but did not specifically mention the problem of disarming rival groups.

Speaking to the Australia-Asia Institute in Sydney, Mr Downer said that if the East Timorese chose independence, the United Nations would play a role in the territory's administration for "a couple of years" before the local people took full control.

In the meantime, Australia had offered to provide support for a representative gathering of the leaders of all political factions in the territory to work towards reconciliation and a transition to a new status.

A spokesman said it had not been decided where such a meeting might be held. New Zealand and Australia both hosted meetings of the warring factions in Bougainville in the lead-up to a ceasefire there.

Mr Downer emphasised that Australia did not, at this stage, favour a United Nations peacekeeping force of the kind involved in Cambodia. "None of the actors in this drama are calling for that," he said.

"First of all, for there to be a peace-keeping force there has to be a peace to keep. "There is no point in sending in masses of troops into a conflict to die. We wouldn't certainly want to see Australians killed ... young Australians killed trying to bring warring parties together.

"We would like through a process of diplomacy, the warring parties, if you could call them that, to come together."

In a wide-ranging speech outlining prospects for what he predicted would be a frantic political year in Indonesia and East Timor, Mr Downer also:

• Accepted there would not be a full referendum in East Timor, but raised the option of having a consultative assembly elected by the territory's people with that assembly deciding between autonomy and independence.
• Warned bluntly of dangers in the lead-up to Indonesia's June election for a new People's Representative Council, and the subsequent election of a president. "In the depths of a terrible recession, there are many potential social, religious, ethnic and economic flashpoints that could derail the process. The chances of that occurring will increase when campaigning starts in earnest."