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Social pressures building

Source
Reuters - July 5, 1998 (abridged)

Amy Chew, Jakarta – Social pressures are building in Indonesia, where nearly half the population is forecast to be living below the poverty line by the end of the year as jobs dry up and prices soar.

"Many workers are hungry. They have no jobs or money to buy their basic necessities," said Teten Masduki, head of the labour division of the respected independent Legal Aid Foundation. "How can you have political stability when your people are starving?" he asked.

The Manpower Ministry said in its latest estimate that unemployment was expected to reach 16.9 million by the end of this year out of a workforce of around 90 million. "Of this number, 60 percent of the unemployed are women," Endang Sulistyaningsih, head of Manpower Planning at the ministry told Reuters.

An estimated 80 million people were currently living below the poverty line and the number was likely to increase to 95.8 million, or almost half the 200 million population, as unemployment and inflation rose, the Central Bureau of Statistics said last Friday. Based on the bureau's calculation, the poverty line is currently defined as 52,470 rupiah ($3.70) per person per month or 227,720 rupiah ($15.65) for a family of 4.34 people in a city and 4.28 people in a village. Inflation rose nearly 47 percent during the first half of this year, and was up around 60 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Workers' demonstrations have intensified since Suharto's May 21 resignation amid the worst economic crisis the world's fourth most populous nation has faced since he took power 32 years ago.

Indonesia is currently caught in a vicious circle of economic decline and political uncertainty. But the political risk factor is keeping away direly-needed foreign investment, which in turn is increasing the threat of further unrest.

Adding to the current political uncertainty are rumours that the former president – who handed over power in May to his vice-president B.J. Habibie – is manoeuvring for a comeback. Some analysts say this could take the form of placing diehard supporters in positions of influence to ensure his position and wealth – currently under judicial investigation – is protected.

A key to the future lies in an extraordinary meeting in the coming week of the Golkar party, of which Suharto currently remains chairman of the board of patrons. The Suharto knives appear to be out for party chairman Harmoko, who was regarded as a strong supporter of the former president until he called on Suharto to quit in May.

"Golkar should not be allowed to be led by a political opportunist," the country's former vice-president Try Sutrisno told a meeting called in advance of next Thursday's opening of the formal party session. Reformists fear an effort by the old guard to keep control of Golkar. The party has shown signs that it could split apart, and new vocal political groups are forming to contest general elections expected next May, but Golkar still remains a formidable political machine after nearly three decades in power.

The Legal Aid Foundation's Masduki said workers were well aware of the state of the economy, but he accused the government of failing to take concrete steps to bring about true political stability. "The military is used to intervene whenever people make demands. That is pseudo stability," he said. But, he added, workers who had been deprived of the right to form their own unions over the years would be far harder to control than more cohesive student protesters on their campuses.

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