Keith B. Richburg, Jakarta – Indonesia's economic hardship worsening, social unrest spreading and anti-government protests showing no sign of abating, the key question on almost everyone's mind here is: What will the military do?
While the country's university students have been at the forefront of the growing demands for political reform, most here say true change will come only through the armed forces.
Abri, the acronym by which the military is commonly known, has been the principal pillar of President Suharto's government for 32 years. And in a country where most political activity has been systematically suppressed, the 400,000-strong armed forces is the only cohesive national organization represented in virtually every city, town and village.
But now, with Suharto facing the gravest challenge to his grip on power, one unanswered question is: Will the military allow itself to be used as a tool of repression, as happened with the People's Liberation Army in China during the Tiananmen Square student protests of 1989? Or will it instead become Indonesia's instrument for reform, perhaps adopting the students' demands for change as its own?
"My own view of the military is that they are very worried about getting ordered to crack down," said a diplomat here. "They don't want to do it. It is the ideology of the military that they are a people's army. They don't use the term, but it's part of their ethos. But the military also does not favor instability. So they are conflicted. Are they loyal to the president? At the moment, they are."
Indonesia's turmoil began last summer with the collapse of the currency, the rupiah, which precipitated an economic crisis and widespread hardship as the country adjusts to austerity measures mandated by the International Monetary Fund as part of a $43 billion bailout.
Student demands and protests against the government have escalated, and this week deaths were reported in the city of Medan after police fired at demonstrators. A death also was reported in Yogyakarta, about 250 miles east of Jakarta, where police battled students yesterday at an Islamic institute. Indonesia's Legal Aid Society said a businessman, 41, was clubbed to death by police during a melee Friday. Police said the circumstances of his death were unclear.
"If [the armed forces] are told to restore order, they will," said Harold Crouch, an Australian academic who has studied the Indonesian military.
The students seem to suspect the troops might come down on their side. At the University of Indonesia's medical school, a 23-year-old student wearing glasses and a bright green T-shirt said: "Judging from the statements made by the military, I believe whether or not they support us depends on our methods... [But] I believe eventually they'll reach the point where Abri will stand behind the people."
The soldiers and police generally have exercised restraint as long as the students confine their protests to the campuses, and the armed forces commander, Gen. Wiranto, repeatedly has warned the students not to let their movement become "infiltrated" or soiled by outside groups. So far the military has refrained from entering the campuses to put down the unrest, many students and sympathizers note.
Even those openly expressing hope that the last two months of sustained student protests can blossom into the kind of "People Power" movement that toppled longtime Philippine dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos recall one sobering note: The Philippine movement succeeded only when two key military figures – then-armed forces chief of staff Fidel V. Ramos, and then-defense minister Juan Ponce Enrile – broke ranks with Marcos and sided with opposition leader Corazon Aquino.
"Even in the Philippines, People Power only succeeded with a major split in the military," Crouch said. "It's hard to see that developing" here.
For three decades the Indonesian military has shown unswerving loyalty to Suharto, a former general still held in some awe by the rank and file for his role in the country's war of independence against the Dutch and later in restoring stability after an unsuccessful communist coup and the turbulence of the Sukarno years. "They admire him, respect him and think he's done a great job for Indonesia," Crouch said.
Moreover, Suharto has ensured loyalty by his constant shifting of commanders, making sure that only those he trusts are in the most strategic positions. Most of the senior generals have served as Suharto's aide.
But those looking for a precedent recall the tumult of 1966 and the circumstances surrounding Suharto's rise from relative obscurity. Then, as now, Indonesia was wracked by student-led protests, and eventually it was Suharto who informed President Sukarno that the time had come to relinquish power.
Could such a scenario happen again? "It all depends on the circumstances," Crouch said. "I don't think they'll have a coup against him, but one of the scenarios is that they go to him and say, [your] 'time is up.' "
An economist and longtime resident put it this way: "You've got to see the economy deteriorate to the point where somebody in the military says, 'enough is enough.' " So far, most agree, the country has not yet reached that stage.
The most-watched figure is Wiranto, newly appointed as armed forces commander and defense minister. Diplomats and others have described him as "a thinking general." He has served as the president's aide and is considered loyal to Suharto. But his public statements, though open to interpretation, suggest he is sympathetic to calls for democratization and a liberalization of the closed political system.
On Thursday, Wiranto told journalists that the government had heard the students' demands for reform and that patience is needed because "there are certain channels and rules to follow."
"Abri is prepared to discuss reforms and implement them," Wiranto was quoted in Friday's papers as saying. "But this has to be done gradually and in line with the constitution." He also said, "We will discuss further these reforms and hope that in the not too distant future, we will have put together some principal thoughts on reforms."
His comments seemed likely to reinforce the widespread impression that Wiranto could become an agent for change within the system. Aside from any genuine concern about societal liberalization, Wiranto also could be acting in the interests of institutional self-preservation; soldiers, like every other sector of Indonesian society, are suffering from the economic free fall.
Wiranto's ally in the armed forces, Lt. Gen. Bambang Yudhoyono, the director of sociopolitical affairs, is known to have held talks with one of the most outspoken critics of the government, Muslim leader Amien Rais. Wiranto said Thursday that Yudhoyono is heading a special team within the military looking into the question of political reforms.
One major unresolved problem is that the armed forces are considered deeply divided by the competing ambitions of key commanders. Even if a military consensus emerged to ask Suharto to step down, the analysts said, there would be little agreement on which general should replace him.
Wiranto's main rival is thought to be Lt. Gen. Prabowo Subianto, Suharto's son-in-law and commander of the 27,000-strong Army Strategic Reserve Command, or Kostrad. Kostrad, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, is considered "the army of the army," and with the bulk of its troops stationed here in the capital, it could block any action against the presidential palace.
Also unsettled is whether Prabowo has his own agenda. Since he is married to Suharto's daughter, one assumption has been that he would remain a loyal defender of the government to the end. However, other military watchers say Prabowo may harbor presidential ambitions, and that if military action comes, it could be Prabowo who leads it.
For the moment, a more serious problem for the armed forces might well be their ability to contain the unrest. With 400,000 troops – including about 150,000 police – the military is considered relatively small for the populous and sprawling Indonesian archipelago.