Sangwon Suh – To many observers, Maj.-gen. Agum Gumelar's proposal was a confirmation of their suspicions. When the South Sulawesi regional commander called for an oath of loyalty to Gen. Wiranto on Feb. 20, shortly after the latter was sworn in as the new armed forces chief, it was seen as further evidence that there was a rift in the military. After all, if the officers' loyalty to Wiranto was unquestioned, there would be no need to require them to make an oath.

Specifically, Gumelar's suggestion was seen as an effort to rein in Lt.-Gen. Prabowo Subianto, the fast-rising former head of the elite paramilitary force Kopassus, who is rumored to be at odds with Wiranto. Later, a reporter questioned the brass over the need for such an oath, hinting at the military's purported split. Prabowo's response was swift and sharp. "How dare you ask such a question?" he demanded. "ABRI [the armed forces] is solid!" Prabowo's outburst was quickly followed up by Gumelar's quiet insistence that swearing allegiance to the armed forces commander was quite normal.

Such an outward show of unity, of course, had little effect on the rumor mills. A son-in-law of President Suharto, Prabowo, 46, is seen as a man of ambition who would not be content to be under the command of 50-year-old Wiranto, himself a rising star who once served as adjutant to the president. Some even envision Prabowo plotting his way to the presidency by making strategic alliances and stirring up unrest.

According to an ABRI intelligence operative, Prabowo is part of a faction that includes Wiranto's predecessor, Gen. Feisal Tanjung, and Vice President B.J. Habibie. Other likely allies include Jakarta commander Syafrie Syamsudin and former comrades at Kopassus. Prabowo has also been meeting with Muslim leader Amien Rais, a vocal government critic and a self-proclaimed candidate for the presidency.

Prabowo was promoted to chief of the army strategic reserve (Kostrad) at the same time as Wiranto's appointment, but he has not yet been sworn in to his new command. The speculation is that the powers that be, wary of Prabowo's military clout, do not want him to take charge of the 25,000 troops stationed in the capital – not at this critical juncture anyway.

Not everyone is a follower of this kind of conspiracy theory. Some argue that Prabowo will be sworn in at Kostrad in due course when a host of other senior staff changes are made. Military analyst Salim Said dismisses the rumors of a deep split. "If you say there is a difference of opinion within ABRI, that's not unusual," he says. "You take any two people you meet and you are bound to find differences of opinion."

Another analyst, however, is not so sure all is well in the military. A split would not be very surprising, he says, since that is Suharto's old-established way of making sure that no one is strong enough to challenge him. Which would go to show that, for all the setbacks in recent months, the president still has a few tricks up his sleeve.