Amien Rais has many personas. He is professor of political science at Gadjah Mada University in Jogjakarta in Central Java. He heads the Muhammadiyah, a 28-million-strong conservative Muslim organization focusing on social and educational activities. He nominated himself to be Indonesia's president, allied himself with opposition politician Megawati Sukarnoputri (daughter of founding president Sukarno) and threatened to call his supporters onto the streets to protest Suharto's rule. Then he seemed to back down. Some say he got scared, others that he got smart. But he hasn't gone quiet. Rais, 53, talked with Senior Writer Susan Berfield about protests, the military and leadership.

What is your message to the students?

To be a little more patient. I urged them to have bigger demonstrations. I told the student leaders to push further every day, but to stay on campus. The rules of the game are to stay on campus; otherwise there could be a crackdown. We will obey the rules for now. I understand that the students want to see quick change; they want to see the monetary crisis overcome. But I said, let us give Suharto one last chance to overcome the crisis he has himself made. He must be held responsible. We can give him one more chance since he insisted on continuing his presidency for another five years. But if after one semester he fails to deliver, then we need a new solution: people power that is non-violent and peaceful. Suharto is not the solution to the problem. He is the problem.

Will the students continue to play by the "rules"?

The demonstrations can go either way. If the students don't do things that the military [known as ABRI by its Indonesian initials] interprets as a challenge, they will be okay. If the students have good relations with ABRI, they can continue. But if there is mutual distrust, then the situation could be terrible. I still have faith in ABRI. Some [officers] don't believe in democracy, [and] are corrupt. But the majority hold to the doctrine of loyalty to the people and the state, not necessarily to the government. If the government is considered corrupt and doesn't fulfill its constitutional tasks, then ABRI can take a different position. It happened in 1966 [when pressure was placed on Sukarno to eventually relinquish power]. We have the same Constitution as we had then. Sukarno was the supreme commander, but he was considered to be deviating from the Constitution, colluding with communism. The people's interests were at stake. ABRI withdrew its support. History may repeat itself. What leads you to believe that one day the military may not support Suharto?

Within ABRI there are many officers, many leaders who share the aspirations of the people, who believe in democracy, who want to see social justice, who don't believe in collusion, nepotism, or corruption. There are some progressive groups. And there have been some signals. Gen. Feisal Tanjung [who just retired as ABRI chief] said that the bottom line is that ABRI goes with the people. Others say the same thing, with different nuances. I met a general the other day who told me it is unthinkable for ABRI to shoot its own people. I asked one of the most important generals why there were 25,000 troops in Jakarta during the national assembly session. He said, "I know what you mean. We want to see a succession. Suharto is no longer needed, but we are instructed to maintain law and order. We have to follow orders." So there may be some conflicts of conscience for soldiers who know what the people are asking. But if they have to choose between Suharto and the people, they will choose the people. . . Change must come peacefully and without violence. Some in the military can share my perception. The only thing that will force Suharto out is further and complete economic deterioration. There is no moral courage to force him to step down. There could only be a monetary coup d'itat against him.

What is your impression of Vice President Habibie's economic ideas?

I know Habibie rather closely. He told me he believes that technology must be the locomotive of economic development. He said if we succeed in having high-tech then almost automatically we will be also knowledgeable in mid-tech and, of course, low-tech too. That is why he is dreaming that Indonesia will become some day a strong country, economically and technologically. I can understand too that many technocrats and economists disagree with him. They say it is not wise for a country like Indonesia to waste money developing aircraft, missiles, even submarines. I want to be fair: Maybe there are some negative sides of Habibie, but I can see the positive sides too. It will be good for Indonesia to have a harmonious and proper combination of the ideas of Habibie and the ideas of the technocrats. If they have mutual trust, it will be much better. But if they have mutually exclusive ideas, it will be counterproductive.

Can you conceive of a situation fairly soon where Suharto steps down and Habibie takes over?

I don't buy this assumption. Suharto will never ever step down. He will die in office. He learned very well the lesson of Sukarno. When Sukarno died he was not in office, and he was buried in a very simple way. He was not given a solemn and official funeral. Suharto does not want to repeat Sukarno's mistake.