Nick Edwards, Singapore – Choking smog that blanketed much of Southeast Asia last year is set to be even worse in 1998 as tinderbox-dry Indonesian forest is consumed by fire, experts said on Thursday.
A rainy season cut dramatically short by the El Nino weather phenomenon and the possibility of prolonged dry weather and drought into September has created a highly combustible mix.
"We have predicted the potential for the fires to be even bigger than last year's," said Longgena Ginting, a programme co-ordinator with Indonesia's Forum for the Environment (Walhi).
"We had virtually no rain at all last year. The wet season was very short which left conditions just right for fire to spread," Ginting told Reuters in a telephone interview.
The situation is already desperate in East Kalimantan, where Ginting says fires have been concentrated around plantation and farm land, destroying up to 40,000 hectares so far this year.
Most of the fires are again said to have been lit to clear land for development, despite a ban on burning open land.
"In theory the government does not allow burning of open land, but in fact it goes on," Ginting said.
Walhi estimated about 1.7 million hectares (4.25 million acres) were affected by forest fires in 1997, while the polluting cloud of smog caused more than US$1.3 billion in damage to the region, said a study by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia.
Indonesia suffered some $1 billion in losses, more than 90 percent of which stemmed from short-term health costs. Malaysia suffered more than $300 million in damage, mostly from industrial production losses and a drop in tourism revenues.
The smog triggered repeated government health warnings, disrupted land, sea and air travel, blighted tourist arrivals and enraged environmentalists.
The same could be in store for 1998, particularly as the fires have been set three months earlier than previously. Ginting expects drought conditions to continue at least into July, and possibly into September.
Warnings about deteriorating air quality have already been issued in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, the three worst-hit nations in last year's smog. While the main hot spots so far are in East Kalimantan, satellite images show that the fires are spreading swiftly and developing into major blazes.
"We hadn't had any major fires until about 10 days ago in Sumatra. We saw many, many small fires but now it is alarming that we are seeing some major fires breaking out," said Lim Hock, the director of Singapore's Centre for Remote Sensing, Imaging and Processing.
"East Kalimantan is burning badly and is pretty much out of control, while in Sumatra big smoke plumes are beginning to emerge and that is a concern."
"A lot depends on factors like wind direction, the size of the fires and the way they are managed," he said.
A lot too could depend on the finances available to fight the fires, already stretched because of Asia's protracted economic crisis, of which Indonesia has become a principal victim.
The cost of 1997's slash and burn fires is regarded as a contributory factor to the country's economic instability. Millions of dollars in international aid have already been pledged to help Jakarta fight the fires in 1998.
Indonesian government officials on Thursday forecast rain over most of the country's farm land, predicting rainfall over the southern part of Sumatra and the western portion of Kalimantan.
The International Monetary Fund's US$43 billion economic rescue package, desperately needed by Indonesia, could also make the fires harder to deal with.
"The IMF has said Indonesia must open up. If we open up our timber market now, it will allow more foreign investors to come in and they will want to increase the rate of land clearing. It could make the problem worse," Ginting said.