Jakarta – The spectre of current food shortages leading to a famine throughout the island of Java has emerged as a major threat to President Suharto's regime, observers say, adding it could even cripple his hold on power.

Indonesian would have to import at least four million tonnes of rice this year to feed its 200,000,000 people, a World Bank report said. Other experts have endorsed the projections. The Bank warned there was the potential "for a serious food crisis with wide social consequences".

In a more blunt remark, a former agricultural adviser to the government told AFP: "In Indonesia, rice is the most sensitive issue and if its unavailable, there'll be revolution.'

In order to avoid any panic run on stores, Indonesian authorities have declared there are "sufficient" stocks and have quietly sought foreign help, especially that of the World Bank whose president James Wolfenson was here last month.

Indonesia is reported to have imported two million tonnes of rice in the December-March period and Japanese source say it has asked for a 400,000-tonne urgent shipment.

Diplomatic sources say Suharto's choice as vice-president, Habibie, has written to German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, asking for a million tonnes of rice from Germany.

With its currency crashing under the weight of massive unproductive debts, Indonesia is in no position to finance rice imports on a big scale, the more so since its demand is likely to push up world prices.

It is not sold on credit and the World Bank has highlighted how imports from Thailand and Vietnam had been cut off in Jenuary because Indonesia could no longer secure a credit line.

Finance Minister Ma'rie Muhammad said Monday Indonesia had sought the Bank's help but added that if it was denied, the government would go ahead and import necessary stocks at an exchange rate of 5,000 rupiah to the dollar. With rice at $300 to the tonne and a current exchange rate of around 10,000, that would be a tall order to fulfil.