Peter Hartcher – One of Indonesia's key Islamic leaders has promised to lead a "people's power" mass movement to unseat President Soeharto unless his regime can solve the country's crisis within a year.
The unprecedented ultimatum was delivered by Dr Amien Rais, the widely respected leader of Indonesia's second-biggest Muslim group, the moderate, 28 million strong Muhammadiyah movement.
Dr Amien announced his position – the first threat of direct action against the Soeharto regime from any significant community leader – in an interview with The Australian Financial Review in his Jakarta headquarters.
"The Indonesian people will give President Soeharto a last chance when he is formally installed for another term of office next month after 32 years in power," he said.
"But if, one year later, he can't deliver, the people will find their own solution. I am imagining a peaceful people's power movement, led by an informal group of trusted leaders of the people. "The country in a crisis will divide naturally into two groups: those who want change, and those who want the status quo. We will see which group is stronger.
"If the group that wants change is stronger, then Indonesia will see a different future. The hungry and the angry people will direct their anger against the Government and there won't be any force that can defeat the will of the people."
Asked whether he would lead such a movement, he replied: "I hope so. I don't want to talk big and then go into hiding."
Last month Dr Amien proposed a loose alliance for "political reform" with the other major Muslim group in Indonesia, the Nahdlathul Ulama (NU), with 38 million members. The NU leader, Mr Abdurrahman Wahid, said that the nature of the alliance needed to be clarified, but that "we feel the same need for political reform".
These men are the most important community leaders in the country. But while Mr Wahid has been sidelined with a stroke in recent weeks, Dr Amien is very active.
Dr Amien also invited the unseated opposition leader, Ms Megawati Soekarnoputri, to join the alliance – an offer she accepted.
This trio would seem to be the likely basis for any people's power movement.
It was the non-violent mass rallying of citizens in the Philippines that finally brought down the Marcos regime, and this example of so-called "people's power" seems to serve as a model for Dr Amien.
Dr Amien predicted that the armed forces, the strongest of Indonesia's institutions and ultimate arbiter of political power, would eventually abandon the Soeharto Government in the face of a people's power movement.
Dr Amien, a US-educated sociologist, said that he had held "long and frank discussions" with the leadership of the army.
"I bet they will take a neutral position. When the will to change is very strong, they will probably go along with the people and abandon their support for the 'ancien regime'," he said.
" It seems to me that we share a lot in common; our vision is the same. There is no serious difference when we discuss the future of the country. I always tell them they have to do first things first – they must not forget the hungry people need to be fed first."
Dr Amien believes that it might still be possible for President Soeharto, Asia's longest-ruling leader, to stabilise Indonesia's crisis.
However, the situation in Indonesia is still deteriorating as a credit crunch forces factories to close and throws workers on to the streets.
And the sharp deterioration of the rupiah is feeding high inflation, with the price of food, fuel and other basic commodities likely to keep rising in coming months.
Dr Amien said: "The existence of the next Soeharto regime will depend very much on its ability to feed the people.
"If he succeeds, if he can build a clean government and restore the confidence of the people, the situation will be much better.
"But the objective monetary situation will put very strong pressure on Soeharto to stand down if his efforts to overcome the crisis fail. He is racing against time."