Yang Razali Kassim – Indonesia's political tension triggered by the financial crisis took a new twist last week when some prominent members of the elite, including the Wanandi brothers, were quizzed by the security authorities in connection with a bomb blast in the capital on Jan 18.

Sofyan Wanandi and Jusuf Wanandi found themselves implicated in an alleged plot by the banned People's Democratic Party (PRD) to exploit the financial turmoil and prevent the re-election of President Suharto in March.

The Wanandi brothers were cleared by the Jakarta office of the Bakorstanas (the Coordinating Body for National Stability) after statements were taken. But military investigators told The Business Times they would not rule out the possibility of questioning them again in future.

Wanandi. They denied any links with the group. "They have been cleared for now. They may or may not be called up again, depending on what comes out of future investigations," a senior military officer said.

In a press conference in Jakarta soon after being questioned at the Bakorstanas headquarters on Monday, Sofyan Wanandi repeatedly denied any involvement in the Jan 18 blast. "The entire clarification of the situation has been accepted by the authorities and that is all they told me today," he said. But this did not prevent protesters from demonstrating outside the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) soon after, demanding the think-tank be closed and Sofyan Wanandi put on trial. The CSIS, located at Tanah Abang in Jakarta, was founded some 20 years ago with the help of the Wanandi brothers and several intellectuals and was highly influential in the early years of the New Order.

The crude home-made bomb blew up accidentally two Sundays ago, destroying a low-cost apartment in Tanah Tinggi, central Jakarta. Two out of three suspects said to be linked to the left-leaning PRD were arrested. The chief of the Jakarta Bakorstanas, Maj-Gen Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, told the press that documents found at the site of the blast seemed to suggest an attempt to mobilise the elite coordinated directly by the Wanandi brothers.

According to Maj-Gen Sjafrie, an e-mail message seemed to implicate Sofyan Wanandi as the mobiliser of financial support from business groups and his brother Jusuf as the mobiliser of moral support from intellectuals and overseas groups.

According to the weekly magazine Gatra, references were also made to a reform-oriented revolution through the mobilisation of "four forces": economic support through the Wanandi brothers; mass support through pro-democracy groups sympathetic to opposition figure Megawati Sukarnoputri; think-tank support through the CSIS; and military support through a "retired general who once was very powerful" – an oblique reference to former commander-in-chief Gen Benny Murdani.

The current commander-in-chief of ABRI, the armed forces, Gen Feisal Tanjung, said the questioning of the Wanandi brothers had nothing to do with their ethnic background or "Sara" – the Indonesian codeword for sensitive issues of race, religion and tribalism. "The law has to be upheld. If anyone is found guilty, he has to face the consequences. This action has nothing to do with Sara," he said. As if to prove the point, the military two days later disclosed that a prominent Muslim media owner, Surya Paloh, had also been implicated by the alleged plot and was questioned. His newspaper, Media Indonesia, subsequently sacked a reporter who wrote a story quoting a PRD denial of the alleged plot. It also reprimanded an editor who approved it.

The questioning of Sofyan Wanandi, 56, who heads the diversified Gemala Group, and his brother Jusuf, 60, a seasoned lobbyist and director of CSIS, is significant for three reasons: First, for the first time since the financial crisis hit the Indonesian economy, some of the country's business leaders and outspoken opinion-makers are being put on the defensive.

Secondly, it shows an ABRI solidly behind President Suharto. In fact, this seems to mark the beginning of a counter-offensive by the Indonesian leader to reconsolidate his hold on the presidency which has been shaken by the financial crisis – the worst since the economic collapse of the 60s which forced the first president, Sukarno, out of power.

Thirdly, it refocused attention on the behind the CSIS group, which, despite its waning fortunes today, has for a long time been politically influential in Indonesia and is still held with regard.

Sofyan Wanandi not only heads Gemala but is also part of the Prasetya Mulia Foundation and the Jimbaran Group, which bring together largely ethnic-Chinese local conglomerates. The Jimbaran Group, for which Sofyan is spokesman, is meant to respond to President Suharto's call two years ago for the large corporates to spread the wealth and help smaller companies grow.

During the economic crisis of the 60s, Sofyan and Jusuf were among several student leaders who successfully mobilised an anti-Sukarno uprising supported by the army, which the then Gen Suharto commanded. After Gen Suharto took over power in 1967 and installed the so-called New Order, many of the student leaders became prominent figures in government, business and politics and were also instrumental in the formation of the ruling Golkar.

Sofyan himself, who has had close links with the military in the early days, later became successful in business. Jusuf went on to set up the CSIS. Run by bright, articulate and active people, the CSIS turned into a major opinion-shaper with links to major think-tanks overseas, especially in the West.

A key factor that made the CSIS effective, however, was the backing it enjoyed from the late Ali Murtopo, one of the early power players of the New Order. After his death in the early 80s, the CSIS group latched on to his proteges such as General Benny Murdani, who eventually rose to become a powerful military commander-in-chief, in fact too powerful for the President's liking.

In one of the most surprising shake-ups 10 years ago, President Suharto moved Gen Murdani out of his post just before the presidential election of 1988. Now retired, Gen Murdani spends some of his time at the CSIS, where he has an office.

Like other intellectuals and thinkers in Indonesia, the Wanandi brothers have minds of their own. They walk a fine line between their roles as defenders of the Suharto government overseas and as critics at home. But over time, because the CSIS has been dominated by Indonesians who are either of ethnic Chinese descent or are Catholic or both, it drew resentment and suspicion from sections of the majority community which see the think-tank as a base to expand minority influence or keep Islam in Indonesia in check.

The CSIS denies this. But partly in response to such charges, it has lately developed close links with Abdurahman Wahid, the leader of the Nahdahtul Ulama, a powerful mass-based Islamic movement with millions of members. Abdurahman Wahid however is as controversial a Muslim leader as his links with CSIS. Although critical of President Suharto, his voice is now muted because he is in hospital recovering from a stroke, at a time when reform-minded critics of the president would need him most.

The questioning of the Wanandi brothers must have come as a surprise to many because it is unlikely that they would be reckless enough to link themselves with a banned group like the PRD. "Are we that stupid?" Sofyan Wanandi asked.

But he has also been seen of late to be too critical of the government for its handling of the economy and for letting the rupiah crash so badly at the expense of businesses. It seems that President Suharto is beginning to hit back at those deemed to have added grist to the international attacks on the rupiah.

"As head of a conglomerate, Sofyan is outspoken, in fact too outspoken. Also, Sofyan and Jusuf are seen to be with the Murdani group. So it looks like President Suharto is beginning to show that he remains in control of the situation. He appears to be eliminating any possibility of him being dethroned through the CSIS," economic analyst Dr Hartojo Wignyowijoto told BT.

Or is President Suharto actually making pre-emptive strikes to soften the opposition against his preferred heir-apparent B J Habibie?

It is no secret that the CSIS group has little liking for Dr Habibie, whom they tend to dismiss in derogatory terms, both as a minister as well as a potential successor. The CSIS, and Sofyan Wanandi in particular, is said to have campaigned against Dr Habibie, favouring current Vice-President Try Sutrisno, who is said could be more pliant to his former boss, Gen Murdani, than Dr Habibie would ever be.

But according to those close to Dr Habibie, the president made it clear last week to ABRI chief Gen Feisal Tanjung that he wanted the research and technology minister to be in the running for the vice-presidency and that special instructions had gone out to pave the way for his rise.

A few days later, aides of Dr Habibie were called to ABRI headquarters and informed of the military's stand to carry out the president's instruction. On the same day, Gen Feisal, accompanied by the chairman of Golkar, Harmoko, and the head of the civil service, Home Minister Yogi S Memet, called on President Suharto.

It was during this meeting that President Suharto accepted his renomination for a seventh term as well as discussed new criteria for the vice-presidency which were seen to favour Dr Habibie.

The move on the Wanandi brothers last week may well be the beginning of more things to come as the March presidential election gets nearer. What these will be will become clearer as the election gets closer.

[The writer is BT's regional analysis editor]