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The waiting game

Source
Sydney Morning Herald - December 22, 1997

As fears grow over the health of Indonesia's President Soeharto, so does talk of who may succeed him. David Jenkins look at who's who among the likely contenders.

When Indonesians talk about General Wiranto, the army chief whose effortless ascendancy coincides with deepening fears about the post-Soeharto future, they make little attempt to disguise their admiration.

Wiranto, they say, is not just a man who exhibits grace under pressure; he is someone who may have what it takes to lead the country towards a more open and democratic future.

For that reason, many were dismayed when the Government released the names of the 500 appointees it is sending to the 1,000-strong People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the body that is expected to rubber-stamp President Soeharto's seventh presidential term in March.

There on the list was the name of both Wiranto's wife, Rugaiya, and their 21-year-old daughter, Amalia Sianti, a university student and political unknown.

They joined a record number of well-connected wives and children, including several of the President's sons and daughters, in the MPR, a body which, in addition to the 500 appointees, includes 75 military officers and 425 parliamentarians, most of them from the army-backed Golkar grouping, all of them carefully screened by the internal security agencies.

"It was not good public relations [by Wiranto]," says an Indonesian magazine editor, shaking his head in disbelief. "Although he is a nice guy, it's nepotism."

As Indonesia grapples with its worst political and economic crisis in 30 years and fears mount over the health of Soeharto, who is said to be suffering from exhaustion, hypertension, a defective kidney and a leaking heart valve, the spotlight is falling increasingly on Wiranto, the army "nice guy".

If Soeharto were to die or become incapacitated in the next three months, Wiranto would be one of several officers responsible for managing the succession and maintaining stability, no easy task at a time when the economy continues to implode, triggering business failures, job losses, price increases and raising concerns over possible food shortages.

Nor is it beyond the realms of possibility that Wiranto might one day become president himself, although for the time being Vice-President Try Sutrisno, a retired four-star general, would automatically become acting president should Soeharto die.

A Muslim from the Indonesian heartland in Central Java, Wiranto, 50, is a man with many strings to his bow. He has an impressive military record. He inspires confidence. He is well-liked, both in the army and the wider community. He has had a better education than some of his colleagues and is said to recognise the need for political reform, albeit cautious reform. He paints. He plays music. He even heads the national bridge association, although he hasn't yet fully mastered the game.

Equally important, Wiranto enjoys the trust of the President, whom he served as an adjutant from 1989 to 1993 - while not being seen as a member of the presidential household, unlike some of his army colleagues.

As army chief, Wiranto is, of course, a loyal supporter of the political system that Soeharto has put in place, one that awards the Armed Forces (ABRI) a central role in politics, with an influence over almost every aspect of Indonesian life.

But he is not a hardliner. Unlike his predecessor, General Hartono, a cavalry officer who displayed a more than normal readiness to involve himself in matters of religion and politics, Wiranto is cut from more conventional ABRI cloth.

He has not gone out of his way to court Muslim leaders, as Hartono did, antagonising some fellow officers, especially Christians. Nor is he the sort of man who would pull a yellow Golkar jacket over his army uniform, as Hartono did on one occasion, to the dismay of many active and retired officers, who like to think that ABRI is "above all groups" in society.

"Wiranto has never aligned himself with a particular group," says a Western diplomat, clearly alluding to Hartono, who is now Minister for Information. "He has never gone to an ICMI [Muslim intellectuals] meeting or donned a yellow jacket. He's a breath of fresh air. He appears on the covers of magazines as someone to look up to. Wiranto is the most charismatic, professional soldier. I would follow him."

Others are equally impressed. "Wiranto has a unique attribute," says another diplomat. "I cannot find any enemies ... nobody comes up with any dirt on him." What is more, Wiranto radiates self-confidence. "When everyone was running scared before the election he was cool, calm and collected. He was Kostrad [Army Strategic Reserve] commander at the time. You couldn't get in to see anyone else. With Wiranto it was no problem at all: "Sure. Come in'."

Until the scare over Soeharto's health upset calculations, it had been widely assumed that Wiranto would move up next March to become Commander of the 476,000-strong Armed Forces (ABRI), replacing General Feisal Tanjung, a cautious and somewhat dour officer.

That is still a strong possibility. But more and more Indonesians are suggesting that Wiranto would make an ideal vice-president - becoming, in effect, the anointed successor to Soeharto - should the President insist on standing again.

Whatever happens - and for the time being every important decision in Indonesia continues to be made by Soeharto - Wiranto looks set to play an important role. If he were to become vice-president, he would be in the box seat should the 76-year-old Soeharto die or become incapacitated. Under the 1945 Constitution, the vice-president automatically completes the five-year presidential term.

If he were to become ABRI Commander, he would be the key officer in a regime which is built, ultimately, on the bedrock of military support.

In the opinion of a prominent Indonesian civilian, Wiranto could be the man who redefines ABRI's future role. "We have an armed forces which is now back on its national track. It's not going off on tangents, as it did when Hartono was there, some of them aligning with the Muslims and some of them aligning with the Benny [Moerdani] group and all that."

If things work out as they should, this source maintains, Indonesia could find itself with a reformist and much more professional army led by a crop of bright new younger officers, including Wiranto, Major General Bambang Yudhoyono - a man billed as "the next Wiranto" - and Major General Prabowo Subianto, a son-in-law of Soeharto and commander of the elite red beret unit, Kopassus.

"It's a fascinating development. But to what extent this group can constitute itself in a cohesive way will depend on the coming one or two years. Who is going to come out as the leader of [the group below Wiranto]?"

Indonesia, according to this analyst, may find itself with a much more professional army, led by officers "still taking it for granted that they have an unquestioned role to play" but content to have "a much more measured role than in the past. It could be a bit destabilising. So we need someone like Wiranto acquiring a recognised status as being the spokesperson for the armed forces."

In other words, many hopes are being invested in Wiranto, who graduated from the military academy at Magelang, Central Java, in 1968 and whose entire adult life has been lived in the shadow of Soeharto's presidency.

It is too early, of course, to say whether those hopes will be realised. The sceptics doubt that Indonesia's army leaders will ever cede real power unless forced to do so. And they point out that the President has not been in the habit of anointing successors or allowing any one officer to build up an independent power base.

Indonesians have been keeping a weather eye open for a possible successor to Soeharto for the best part of three decades. Soeharto has outlived or outmanoeuvred all those who might have posed a challenge. He has never allowed anyone - least of all a four-star Javanese Muslim - to acquire unfettered power. Nor is that likely to change.

Nor, for that matter, has Wiranto been looking much like a man bent on redefining ABRI's political role. In recent weeks, he and Hartono - the current army chief and his immediate predecessor - have been hard at work ensuring that everything falls into place during the March session of the MPR, a nominally independent civilian institution which is animated by the presidential will and responsive to military "guidance".

Unlike Hartono, who had never had a combat command, Wiranto spent much of his time in an infantry battalion, with several tours of duty in East Timor. In 1989, he began a four-year term as presidential adjutant. This brought him into daily contact with the man who holds all senior military appointments in his hands.

The new adjutant made a good impression on the President. In 1993, he was appointed chief of staff of Kodam Jaya, the politically sensitive Jakarta military region, taking command in 1994. In 1995, he took command of Kostrad.

At each stop along the way, Wiranto seems to have stood out as a man destined for greater things. He topped his year at staff college. He won the respect of colleagues while serving on the army staff. He impressed those around him while serving as an adjutant at the presidential palace. Within six weeks, said a retired four-star general who is not given to praising lightly, "he was running the palace. It was just that he was so good".

What would happen if Soeharto were to install someone such as Hartono as vice-president and Wiranto as ABRI Commander, only to then disappear from the scene? Where would the power lie? That is not at all clear.

About the only thing that can be said with any certainty is the army will be playing a central role in Indonesia long after Soeharto has gone.

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