Gerry van Klinken – Once thought of as a shoe-in for vice-president, Habibie's political stature has declined markedly in recent weeks. Both of his political 'legs', namely his technological prowess and his access to the Islamic community via ICMI, have been weakened by recent developments.

First, he has apparently abandoned plans for a nuclear power plant in his lifetime. He said that the discovery of huge new gas deposits (Natuna, Irian Jaya and Kalimantan) made nuclear energy too expensive.

Ironically, the statement came just after legislation enabling a nuclear power industry was passed. After over a year in the parliamentary wilderness, the law was finally passed by an almost empty House on 26 February. With perhaps a hint of hypocrisy, considering he oversees a large technological establishment committed to developing the nuclear option, he at the time had nodded in the direction of anti-nuclear sentiment by saying: 'I pray there will be no nuclear power station'.

Then on 11 March he said that the original plan (reiterated over many years), to open the first nuclear plant in 2003, would be postponed to 2030 or even, if necessary, to the year 3000. Nuclear activists, perhaps only half believing the pledge, then asked for the nuclear legislation to be repealed.

An important factor in the postponement is certainly the high cost of building a nuclear plant. As recently as 20 February, Director General of Indonesia's Atomic Energy Commission Iyos Subki had made the eyebrow-raising statement that initial plans to build it privately on the Build-Own-Operate (BOO) principle were unworkable and they were looking at bartering Natuna gas or aeroplanes for nuclear power.

Whatever the reason for the postponement, assuming it is genuine, it represents a political setback for Habibie, whose reputation hinges on his technological prestige.

Second, Habibie was forced to push prominent intellectual and religous leader Amien Rais out of a top position within the Islamic association ICMI that he heads. On 22 February it was announced Amien Rais had asked to resign because of his workload as head of Muhammadiyah.

However, Amien Rais later told Gatra magazine (current issue) that Habibie had first sent someone to warn him, and had then called him in to tell him his statements on foreign investment in two large mining projects were 'giving opportunity to enemies of the New Order'. Amien Rais then felt he had no choice but to offer his resignation as chairman of ICMI's Council of Experts. He said that Habibie was under pressure from certain quarters within the top elite - people whose real target was not Amien Rais but Habibie himself.

Amien Rais had issued statements criticising the low level of Indonesian participation in the huge Freeport (Irian Jaya) and Busang (Kalimantan) copper and gold mines. He often wields populist as well as Islamicist arguments to highlight corruption in high places. He has lately talked of establishing a 'clean coalition' of Abri generals and intellectuals.

It is true that Habibie may have won a fight with Amien Rais, and that opponents of Amien Rais within Muhammadiyah may use this opportunity to unseat him from the Muhammadiyah leadership as well. However, Habibie needed Amien Rais to create the impression that ICMI was not merely a front for a government (pseudo-) political party, but had real roots in the people. The departure of Amien Rais has robbed Habibie of an important access route to the professional middle class.

The Far Eastern Economic Review in a recent edition (6 February) noted that Try Sutrisno now accompanies President Suharto more often to official functions than he used to. Indeed, there has been speculation in Jakarta for some months that Suharto has abandoned plans to appoint Habibie as his next vice-president, and has conceded to Abri pressure to reappoint Try Sutrisno, who they see as their man in the palace.

[Gerry van Klinken, Editor, Inside Indonesia magazine.]