Analysists who prefer to highlight structural interests often find the personalised nature of Indonesian politics difficult to grasp. Yet personal loyalties define the language of intra-elite conflict today as much as they did in the days of the sultans. A document marked 'highly secret', apparently produced at the think tank CPDS and circulating in Jakarta proves the point.
The CPDS is led by Amir Santoso, and is often said to be close to Army Chief of Staff Gen Hartono. The document surveys all Jakarta's main political players and places them in the category of enemy or friend of 'Pak Harto'. Though undated, it refers to events of the last several months. If its conspiratorial atmosphere accurately reflects the lack of communication across factional divides at the nation's top, it bodes ill for a smooth presidential succession.
'Analysis of socio-political developments in the run-up to the 1997 election and the 1998 MPR special session' paints a picture of an 'anti-Pak Harto' ('anti-establishment', 'pro-democracy') alliance so large it makes the reader wonder what chance 'pro-Pak Harto' people have. The alliance's two main grievances are said to be the Suharto family's illicit wealth, and his favouring Islamic influence in the bureaucracy and army. The document says the alliance is made up of 'pro-Sukarno' nationalists, and of resentful individuals who have lost power.
First within the oppositional alliance are factions within the military. As does much Jakarta rumour, the document speaks of a split between Armed Forces Commander Gen Feisal Tanjung and Hartono. Here the former is the villain. Protected by Feisal Tanjung, the two serving officers most to be watched are Kostrad commander Lt-Gen Wiranto (49) and Jakarta area chief of staff Maj-Gen Bambang Yudhoyono (brilliant son-in-law of Sarwo Edhie, class of '73). Wiranto's network is supposed to be derived from the Infantry Training Centre he led in the '80s.
Behind Wiranto are supposed to stand retired officers formerly identified as 'Red-and-White': Harsudiono Hartas, Defence Minister Edi Sudradjat, and above all Benny Murdani, still feared as the menacing power behind all anti-Suharto dissent. The think-tank CSIS (a rival of the CDPS) and Singapore scholar Bilveer Singh are supposed to play a facilitating role in the conspiracy. Their interest, according to the document, is to restore the autonomy of Abri against Suharto's tendency to 'give civilians a go'. Ranged against this military faction on the 'pro-Pak Harto' side within Abri are what others have long called 'Green' Abri (referring to its Islamic credentials, not the colour of its uniform). Wiranto allegedly calls this a 'Hartono-Prabowo-Tutut coalition' (though the document adds that Wiranto is trying to get Prabowo to swap sides).
Coopted by this Red-and-White military group of 'anti-Suharto' officers is a 'Rainbow Alliance' of civilian politicians. It supposedly includes cabinet ministers: Secretary of State Moerdiono, Transmigration Minister Siswono Yudohusodo (whose name, incidentally, is given incorrectly), Environment Minister Sarwono Kusumaatmadja. Of course Megawati is there too, as are Abdurrahman Wahid of NU. And then dissidents of all stripes such as Gunawan Mohammad, Arief Budiman, Sandyawan SJ, Sri Bintang Pamungkas, Mulyana Wirakusumah, and Soebadio.
All these people are linked vaguely with communism, through alleged contacts with the PRD, still portrayed as public enemy number one for its ability to mobilise on 27 July 1996.
Even some of the President's offspring fall into this 'anti-Suharto' category by default because by their greedy behaviour they have created a bad image for their father.
The National Human Rights Commission (Komnas HAM) is part of the alliance too, the document says, as are foreign human rights NGOs such as Aksi, Tapol and Human Rights Watch. The latter have stimulated fears about the potent combination of 'Islam and high tech' (ie. of Habibie) within the US & Australian governments.
A large number of mainstream news media, both print and electronic, are also listed as part of the anti-Suharto conspiracy (Indonesia-L even gets a mention!). There are complaints that even media owned by pro-Suharto people are giving prominence to anti-Suharto stories. Examples given are ICMI's Republika, and Bambang Trihatmodjo's RCTI - the latter through the influence of the 'Christian' Peter Gontha.
This paranoic picture of a huge, homogeneous and hostile conspiracy ends in a series of recommendations. The President should move disloyal army officers to non-strategic posts, reduce his children's dependence on state favours, do something about cabinet ministers who embarrass the government (the Tourism and Home Affairs ministers). The document recommends a strategy of 'divide-and-rule' against the dissident alliance by taking repressive action against diehards, while trying to coopt the others. It recommends a program of acquiring shares in mass media in order to control their information output. Finally, it recommends an increase in funding for think-tanks that could rival the 'negative' influence of the CSIS....
[Gerry van Klinken, Editor, Inside Indonesia magazine]